I was kind of close to a couple of tornadoes this summer.
Before, I believed it doesn't just sneak up on you but I am not sure anymore. We don't usually see tornadoes, and I don't think they were very big, so maybe that changes things.
One went a couple of blocks to the north of me. The tornado watch came out the day before so I was paying attention. I was standing on the porch watching in that direction. It was storming, but it wasn't a very strong storm. No green, no hail, no strong winds, rain was pretty average. Still didn't know until I started hearing about it through Twitter and a coworker. The warning came 10-15 minutes after he saw it.
The other storm that dropped a tornado went over us while we were at a park. It was sunny when we arrived ~20 minutes earlier. This one did have all of the classic signs - winds picked up out of nowhere, heavy rain, hail, etc. At least it made sense when we heard a tornado touched down.
Maybe it IS a weak argument, but I've seen dozens of tornado warnings where no tornado occurs. There are weeks where a severe t-storm watch is out 4-5 nights and it doesn't rain. Sometimes a severe t-storm warning comes out and it doesn't rain. It's really easy to start ignoring them. I even see winter storm warnings that fizzle out to a couple of inches of snow. The weather report is frequently a bad version of the boy who cried wolf.
SPC uses radar measurements (velocity) to detect rotation at different radar tilts. When you see 2 velocity points very close together, that usually raises the criteria to a warning. Sometimes, at the lowest tilt, we can detect debris on the radar..
But, as you said, not every warning translates into a confirmed tornado on the ground, a limitation of the current radar models.
Before, I believed it doesn't just sneak up on you but I am not sure anymore. We don't usually see tornadoes, and I don't think they were very big, so maybe that changes things.
One went a couple of blocks to the north of me. The tornado watch came out the day before so I was paying attention. I was standing on the porch watching in that direction. It was storming, but it wasn't a very strong storm. No green, no hail, no strong winds, rain was pretty average. Still didn't know until I started hearing about it through Twitter and a coworker. The warning came 10-15 minutes after he saw it.
The other storm that dropped a tornado went over us while we were at a park. It was sunny when we arrived ~20 minutes earlier. This one did have all of the classic signs - winds picked up out of nowhere, heavy rain, hail, etc. At least it made sense when we heard a tornado touched down.
Maybe it IS a weak argument, but I've seen dozens of tornado warnings where no tornado occurs. There are weeks where a severe t-storm watch is out 4-5 nights and it doesn't rain. Sometimes a severe t-storm warning comes out and it doesn't rain. It's really easy to start ignoring them. I even see winter storm warnings that fizzle out to a couple of inches of snow. The weather report is frequently a bad version of the boy who cried wolf.