I don't think a next-gen APU for a Steam Deck 2 is going to be that big a problem. The Steam Deck's APU is officially designated: "AMD Custom APU 0405"[1], basically a mix and match of AMD's same-generation parts. With the success of the Steam Deck, a followup custom APU is all but assured, although I don't think it'll show up before next year. If I had to guess, I'd expect a 4C Zen5c and 12 CU RDNA 3.5 on 4nm in late 2024 which should offer a big bump (assuming they can improve memory bandwidth).
Note, we're seeing a lot of Chinese handhelds using 7840s already that while a bit behind at 10W, start beating the Steam Deck's performance (sometimes dramatically) at 15W+. Personally, I'd be pretty excited for a Strix Point handheld next year - AMD seems like they're finally getting serious on the iGPU side of things again (with Meteor Lake looking to be competitive).
> basically a mix and match of AMD's same-generation parts.
It is not. Its a distinct die from the Zen2/3 laptop parts.
If AMD was going to continue the Deck APU line, we would have seen Dragon Crest by now... But its not there, and the Z1 is in its place.
Again, I reiterate, taping out a chip is massively expensive. Valve cannot afford a custom die, they are stuck with what AMD has at the moment when they need it... Though if AMD starts tiling their laptop APUs, Valve might be able to tweak the CPU/GPU config.
No, the Steam Deck would have never upgraded to Dragon Crest (2022 on those leaked roadmaps). In case you didn't realize, the Steam Deck wasn't released until Feb 25 2022, and only sold 1M units in 2022 (vs 3M projected in 2023). It's certainly successful enough now (and has enough marketing, like it had just a ridiculous amount of floorspace at TGS) that it's all but guaranteed there will be a Steam Deck 2 (but probably not until 2025).
Since all the details are NDA'd, I guess we'll have to disagree on the economics, but "tweaking CPU/GPU config" is the whole point of AMD's Semi-Custom Solutions group and if they can't handle delivering a solution for a product that has at least $2B in sales, then I don't know what customers they're supposed to serve (tape-out costs are expensive, but not nearly as expensive as you're imagining I suspect, when reusing existing IP blocks). But we can revisit in a few years and see.
Note, we're seeing a lot of Chinese handhelds using 7840s already that while a bit behind at 10W, start beating the Steam Deck's performance (sometimes dramatically) at 15W+. Personally, I'd be pretty excited for a Strix Point handheld next year - AMD seems like they're finally getting serious on the iGPU side of things again (with Meteor Lake looking to be competitive).
[1] https://chipsandcheese.com/2023/03/05/van-gogh-amds-steam-de...