I saw other waves and this one is different. This is the first time we can unlock increasing cognitive capabilities by just basically letting capital grow its own ai. It's at the level of like invention of internet or currency or printing press or writing or maybe even human language.
I don’t see any evidence that it’s there yet. I do see that potential if AI were to improve dramatically, but I think we’re tricking ourselves into thinking it’s already here because what we’re seeing is so compelling.
The reality as far as I can tell is that we still have an incredible distance to go to have anything comparable to unlocking spoken or written language.
I guess it's your right to believe that as long as you want, the evidence is that it's beating people at every exam like AP exams and GRE exams and bar exams and medical certification exams and not only like regurgitating facts but it's also superhuman level in theory of mind. And all that comes from just an architecture that reads every text and uses a lot of GPU power.
I think these things are amazing, but I don’t think they’re comprehensively intelligent nor do I think we can easily reproduce this spark in other domains of intelligence.
When we can, we will be creating something superhuman in the truest sense. What we have now isn’t that at all. I think it appears magical because we’re so enthralled by language. It’s a major interface into our world and we’re extremely stimulated by it. It conveys so much meaning to us with so little. In fact, when it conveys too little meaning we begin to search for it and fill in the gaps! Our brains are extremely eager to engage with language.
I’m excited about this stuff, but what the models are doing isn’t as incredible as all of that seems.
Yeah right, it can answer written form exams that are similar to previous ones, and are expressed in formulaic ways. That's impressive, don't get me wrong, but it's also already clear that ChatGPT makes for a terrible lawyer (inventing cases looks bad) and literally can't act as a doctor cause it doesn't have, like, a body, or a sense of empathy. It's like saying that it got the theory part of a driving test correct so now we have self driving figured out.
