I tried to figure out if this reasoning is plausible by reading a few history books on the subject predating 2021- just to be sure i would not be sucked into group think. Turns out ALL historians tend to disagree heavily (Kappeler, Applebaum, Plokhy.. Checked on their national background too)
Problem with these self proclaimed realists you are referring to is they dont have any solutions, never had (see 1993), have been wrong in the past, continue to be so… most reasonable among them is Kissinger, and even he is very much on the moderate side. It is up to you to reconsider or make yourself comfortable with Tucker Carlson.
That USA would in fact tolerate chinese military in mexico?
"It is up to you to reconsider or make yourself comfortable with Tucker Carlson"
And strong disagree. I don't have to make myself comfortable or align with any character or movement, just because most of the world wants only to think in black and white.
>> That USA would in fact tolerate chinese military in mexico?
This is such a poor rhethorical question. Why play with hypothethicals like Mexico and China, if Europe already has direct Russian nukes in Kaliningrad enclave in the middle of Europe with constant threats of destroying Warsaw and London? And yet, that's tolerated, unlike what people like you suggest and imagine.
I happen to live in europe, so I am quite aware of our situation. But europe is not the US, as far as I know.
And the US diplomatic stance towards EU inofficially was something like "fuck the EU".
I also know how "the west" moved further east step by step. Which is in general very fine by me, as I do prefer living by western standards (and I was born in the east).
So I certainly would not stand in the way, if Ukraine wants to go pro west. If I would not have little children I seriously would have considered going to the war as a volunteer. So much for context of "people like me"
But that doesn't change one thing how the US plays this geopolitics game.
Or our governments, sure. They are not better, just weaker.
Doesn't really change anything in the equation. Russian missiles in Kaliningrad can hit key US military installations like Ramstein AFB and RAF Lakenheath with practically no warning. They are a direct threat from a hostile country that keeps making threats about using them, this is far more serious than any imagined Mexican alliance.
And yet, the reaction is... what? Where are B52s bombing Kaliningrad?
>> I also know how "the west" moved further east step by step.
I am sure you do. Can you tell me why Russian apologists always phrase it as if a shadowy cabal in Washington forced countries into international cooperation, instead of portraying as it actually was?
>> Because it was verbally promised by different high ranking officials, that the NATO would NOT move further east.
Not according to the Soviet foreign minister at the time. He also explains why this conspiracy theory is nonsense: at the time when that verbal promise was allegedly given, no-one could even imagine that Warsaw Pact would cease to exist. According to him, NATO status of Warsaw Pact countries was not discussed with Western officials, not discussed within Warsaw Pact, and not within Communist Party circles in Moscow either.
Nor did you answer my question. Why do Russian apologists try to word this as NATO was somehow forced upon Eastern Europe instead of integration into international institutions being their own long-term goal?
The matter is murky in the details, but it certainly isn't a "conspiracy theory".
Not surprisingly -- different participants have different recollections of what was said, and in what context. As a counterpart to the above, we also have Baker's assurances, made to the Soviets at the time “neither the President nor I intend to extract any unilateral advantages from the processes that are taking place". And that the Americans understood that “not only for the Soviet Union but for other European countries as well it is important to have guarantees that if the United States keeps its presence in Germany within the framework of NATO, not an inch of NATO’s present military jurisdiction will spread in an eastern direction.”
Which certainly sounds like verbal promises that "NATO would not move further east". There is also Gorbachev's famous assessment of the whole matter, after the fact: “It [NATO expansion] was definitely a violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990".
Not that these assurances had the status of signed treaties -- and not that any of this stuff in any way justifies, minimizes or "explain" the current conflict, which as we know has one aggressor and by this point is entirely one-sided.
But the statements above are part of the historical record -- not some conspiracy theory, or the inventions of Russian apologists.
Soviet leadership, including Gorbachev himself, have explicitly denied that any assurances existed. Like Shevardnadze, he denied that they even talked about it with western counterparts. In his own words: "The topic of ‘NATO expansion’ was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. … Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement was made in that context…"
Nobody brought the alleged assurances up when former Warsaw Pact joined NATO either. This narrative didn't exist until mid-2000, by which time NATO enlargement had largely ended.
The spirit that Gorbachev bitterly speaks about is his idea of "Common European Home" that did not come to fruition, as Eastern Europe didn't want to have anything to do with Russians after half a century of oppression and turned their backs as soon as they could choose their own path. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_European_Home
Soviet leadership, including Gorbachev himself, have explicitly denied that any assurances existed.
As regards Gorbachev -- what did he say actually, and when?
And why would he say the exact opposite in his RBTH interview in 2014? (Granted, this is RBTH -- but I think we can be reasonably confident that the interview is not a fabrication and that he is being quoted correctly). Here's his quote again, in full context - and it's clear he's not not referring to the Common European Home:
The decision for the U.S. and its allies to expand NATO into the east was decisively made in 1993. I called this a big mistake from the very beginning. It was definitely a violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990. With regards to Germany, they were legally enshrined and are being observed.
My quote is from the same interview. I repeat: "The topic of ‘NATO expansion’ was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years."
If that interview leaves anything unclear, then Spiegel tried to get a "yes, assurances existed" answer from foreign minister Shevardnadze from several different angles, but he replied to every attempt with a "No."
Mmm -- my sense is that you're also "arranging scraps" here to get them to line up and support the narrative that you like.
By my reading, Gorbachev's later statement -- "definitely a violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990" (referring to NATO's decisive steps towards expansion starting in 1993) -- is more holistic, and seals the matter.
Not that there was "conspiracy" to hoodwink the Soviets from the beginning, per your straw-man argument. But still -- against the spirit of the statements and assurances made at the time, 'twas. Shevardnadze's statements might seem to contradict this, but not really -- Shevardnadze is focusing on the details; Gorbachev is talking about the bigger, "moral" picture if you will.
And that's why I call it a conspiracy theory - it relies on a small number of select snippets, interpreted in the most favorable way possible, ignoring things like explicit statements to the opposite from the very same sources. A textbook example of conspiratorial thinking.
The facts are simple:
1. Possible NATO status of Warsaw Pact countries was never discussed.
2. There was no assurance from NATO to Soviet Union on possible NATO status of Warsaw Pact countries.
3. Key members of the Soviet leadership explicitly deny any such assurances.
4. Russia never brought up any such assurances when Warsaw Pact countries joined NATO.
5. Russia and NATO signed a treaty greenlighting NATO enlargement before any official talks with Warsaw Pact countries started.
What was discussed in 1990:
1. Integration of East German military into NATO structures.
2. Size and composition of German military after reunification.
3. Placement of NATO forces (that is, from the US, UK, and elsewhere) in East Germany.
This has nothing to do with NATO status of Warsaw Pact countries.
Placement of NATO troops (discussed) and potential members of NATO (not discussed) should not be confused.
I am referring to the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation. It was signed in May 1997 during NATO summit in Paris. At the next summit in July, the first former Warsaw Pact countries were invited into NATO. Official negotiations began in September.
I see no conflicts with commonly accepted definitions of conspiracy theory: "a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators" (Merriam-Webster).
How did former Warsaw Pact countries end up in NATO?
According to conventional understanding, former Warsaw Pact countries seeked political, economic and military security through cooperation in international organizations ranging from Council of Europe to NATO.
According to the conspiracy theory, NATO and Russia made a secret deal to divide Europe, but the USA did not keep their side of the deal, intentionally misled Russia and forced Warsaw Pact countries into NATO in order to encircle, attack and destroy Russia.
So ... again, you're splitting hairs here. And then some.
Official "invitations" to the first round countries (PL, CZ, SK, HU) were issued around 1997 -- but that's the last step in the process. Official "talks" began much sooner. Already the formation of Visegrád Group in 1991 (whose purpose was largely to get these countries ready to integrate into the EU and NATO).
Anyway by 1993 talk of these countries joining NATO was already all over the news (NYT: "Yeltsin 'Understands' Polish Bid for a Role in NATO").
So right there -- you're way off base. The Founding Act itself it pretty long-winded, but I'm not seeing any text that "greenlights" NATO expansion (other than by simply not mentioning the topic).
As to conspiracy theories: the whole point is, what you were referring to was a certain line of (dubious) argumentation or reasoning -- "relying on snippets of facts". Which is certainly very often an aspect of conspiracy theories, but nothing to do with the key substance of the term.
No one (except fully deluded Russian apologists by this point) believes in that particular theory you cite. I certainly don't, and don't feel I need to respond to any ridiculous insinuations that I do.
Anyway, look -- you're certainly quite adept yourself at pulling up snippets of fact. But across the board -- I'm just finding your thinking to be rather muddled; you extremify and hyperbolize a lot; and that you're just not seeing the forest for the trees (in addition to getting a lot of the "trees" themselves wrong). And as a result, this discussion just isn't very productive.
So I'm going to have to bow out at this point, and let you hash these topics over in the privacy of your own thoughts. Which is a pity, sort of (since it seems we would probably agree on a lot of basic things about this conflict that other people seem to be horribly confused about -- such as who the aggressor is, and why they started it).
>> Official "invitations" to the first round countries (PL, CZ, SK, HU) were issued around 1997 -- but that's the last step in the process.
Not the last step at all. In July 1997, NATO invited Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary to accession talks, to be correct. Talks began in September and took until 1999 to conclude. Full membership was achieved only in March 1999. Invitation to accession talks is by no means a formality or a last step.
>> Anyway by 1993 talk of these countries joining NATO was already all over the news (NYT: "Yeltsin 'Understands' Polish Bid for a Role in NATO").
... and that was considered as far-fetched as Ukraine's ambitions towards EU and NATO membership were in 2021. Something that everyone politely nodded to, but very few believed would happen in any meaningful timeframe. Russian army was still in Poland in 1993. Poland was in a socio-economic disaster then. Energy crisis, insane inflation and organized crime, inability to even pay government employees' wages, let alone participate in international organizations as an equal. NATO membership and American nuclear umbrella were mythical dreams at that time, often ridiculed in the press, as you will discover if you dig deeper into old newspapers. The tone changed during accession talks when it began to look like entry into NATO was really going to happen.
>> The Founding Act itself it pretty long-winded, but I'm not seeing any text that "greenlights" NATO expansion (other than by simply not mentioning the topic).
From the treaty: "To achieve the aims of this Act, NATO and Russia will base their relations on a shared commitment to the following principles: /.../
respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states and their inherent right to choose the means to ensure their own security, the inviolability of borders and peoples' right of self-determination as enshrined in the Helsinki Final Act and other OSCE documents;"
NATO established this clear understanding with Russia in writing before anyone was invited to accession talks.
>> But across the board -- I'm just finding your thinking to be rather muddled, and that you're just not seeing the forest for the trees (in addition to getting a lot of the "trees" themselves wrong).
The only ones trying to muddy things are those who ignore a decade-long political process in European politics and its huge bureaucratic trail, and try to give a simple alternative explanation that hinges on a handful of out-of-context quotes from Baker and Genschler, because there is nothing else to back it up. It's like quoting some overly alarmist NASA memo questioning radiation shielding of Apollo spacecraft, and using that to "prove" that the Moon landings never happened - ignoring the immense work that 400 000 people and countless institutions and companies all across the world put into it over a decade, and all the trails they left behind.
You have to throw away a decade worth of European diplomacy to subscribe to the Russian talking point about broken promises and encirclement.
As Shevardnadze clarifies, all they talked about NATO was strictly in the context of German reunification and attempts to take quotes out of context are anarchronistic. What assurances did the USSR need if it had a large nuclear-equipped group of forces in Poland?
And besides that, many years later, but months before former Warsaw Pact countries started official NATO negotiations, NATO and Russia signed a treaty that gave a green light.
So one one side of the conspiracy theory, you have a handful of scraps arranged to look like something, and on the opposing side you have actual written agreements and recollections from key people directly involved in those events.
And all present, past and future politicians in Germany, Poland, US end everywhere else are supposed to be permanently bound by what a former German foreign minister supposedly said before leaving office back in 1992.
Who cares. Eastern European countries are sovereign and can do as they please if they consider it to be in their national interest.
> This does not create trust.
It goes both way. Trusting dictators under any circumstances is an exceptionally idiotic thing to do.
Also it might be hard to grasp however politicians in in charge to change every few years and beholding them to some “verbal promises” made by their predecessor is absurd.
Don’t you know? national sovereignty is a myth and great powers such as Russia (lol..) have an inherent right to impose their will on everyone between the Oder and Pacific ocean because mr. Genscher renounced Germany’s claim to Eastern Europe.
I invite you to look at a map if you think the US would be so cavalier about invading Mexico as it was about Grenada. I'm not saying it couldn't, I'm just saying it's not a thing you do lightly.
„Historians disagree on what exactly?“
Nato expansion beeing the root cause of russian aggression. I recommend reading kappeler. He knows the russian language and history very well (what does nearsheimer know?), translated Putins essay and had no illusions about his intentions. We need to take those people serious who have been right with their predictions, not those who have failed and keep repeating the same talking point ad naseam.
But I think I was clear that I have no illusions about Putin. He probably still dreams of a eurasian empire led by him. And he respects only raw power.
I still think, it could have gone all very different. For example by sanctioning the russian people in charge and not the whole russian population after 2014. Or not getting involved in Maidan. Or by not invading Iraq, setting a often cited precedent. Putin allmost literally saying: "If the US can just ignore international law and invade a country, so can I"
Well, we don't know if it would have been possible to change the course of history for the better- right? Might have been even worse- consider 1994. A great deal of effort has been made to respect russian interests, handover of nukes in 1994, no to Nato in 2008, eyes closed on chechnya and georgia, little consequences in 2014... The reasoning was always to respect the russian sphere of influence. But as you say, Putin respects only raw power. "Showing respect" does not equal "raw power". So what we are seeing is less "geopolitics in action" but history in the making, unless you are not willing to give "the people of Ukraine" any voice in this. Now, this is where Kappeler could be helpful. I encourage you reading what he has to say about "maidan involvement".
I wanted to make sure to have native russians on the list too, not just american or european. You will have a very hard time finding historians with international publications blaming nato like nearsheimer.
