Current political climate seems to favor making gasoline cheaper for the poorest brazilian consumers at pretty much any cost. I've read that they want to uncouple local fuel prices from world wide market prices. They really want to wash off the bitter taste left by the utterly insane prices during the pandemic.
Thus their move will likely be to somehow dictate prices to Petrobras, profitability be damned. Petrobras stock has already taken several nosedives since this guy took office.
And frustratingly they could, if the current system of renewable wholesale prices being pinned to the most expensive, fossil fuel, prices were removed. There’s some complexity there because building of renewable generation is incentivised via being able to charge more for it, and therefore break even on the investment earlier, but it certainly seems like that would have been a better move than the government just outright subsidising massive price increases, thus transferring money directly from taxpayers who are feeling the pain of inflation to some of the richest companies in the world.
Thus their move will likely be to somehow dictate prices to Petrobras, profitability be damned. Petrobras stock has already taken several nosedives since this guy took office.