> Considering Tesla is on track to deliver 1.8M vehicles this year and the delivery growth trajectory it's been on, 4M is a good target goal for 2025, $45k ASP, 10% profit margin, 30 P/E . . . from that I get $180, so today's price is fair as a base case for 2025.
That's a lot of assumptions. Why not wait 3 years till all those projections materialize, and buy it then for $180 (if the price is still there)? Currently, if you buy at $180, you're discounting all the uncertainty and risk included in your calculations. Not to mention, even if you're right, the stock will be worth $180 in 3 years from now, which means your money will be idling for 3 years if you buy now.
This. It’s being priced as if the best possible case has already happened and can be taken for granted with 100% certainty, which if that’s the case, still means you’d be better somewhere else for the interim.
Not really, since you’re getting everything else the company is working on essentially for free at this price, including energy, FSD, the robot, the AI hardware, etc. Best case would be all of those things developing into their own revenue streams.
That's a lot of assumptions. Why not wait 3 years till all those projections materialize, and buy it then for $180 (if the price is still there)? Currently, if you buy at $180, you're discounting all the uncertainty and risk included in your calculations. Not to mention, even if you're right, the stock will be worth $180 in 3 years from now, which means your money will be idling for 3 years if you buy now.