The decline is definitely more interesting than the headline.
The headline number is also a cumulative total since legalization started. The annual tax revenue is around $4 billion:
> According to a new report from the Marijuana Policy Project, cannabis sales tax generated a healthy $3.77 billion in 2022, but that was slightly below 2021’s tax revenue of $3.86 billion.
The article doesn't speculate why revenues are declining. I wonder why. Maybe past high revenues were an artifact of people staying home during COVID? Or is it a result of decreasing prices? I'm not a consumer, so I don't really know what's going on in the market.
Missouri just went full legal. I went to a cannabis b2b trade show a few weeks ago and chatted with a vendor from Michigan. He indicated it's been his experience that the first few months recreational sales go gangbusters and then the novelty wears off and sales decline, while at the same time cultivation ticks up and prices fall.
The recreational sales in Missouri is being described as booming.
I have to imagine there's a boom of people trying it for the first time when it becomes legal who then realize it's not as universally enjoyable of a high as alcohol.
It's weird how most of the discussion I hear about weed is how it just makes movies funny and you get hungry. But then most people I've talked to about it one-on-one don't have nearly as good of an experience, myself included. It makes me paranoid and depressed, and if I try watching a movie I can't remember what happened a scene ago so I can't follow the story. My passage of time gets screwed up, adding to the paranoia/fear, and I occasionally realize I'm clenching my jaw, and I've experienced jaw pain the next day from it. Not to mention how it saps all your energy/motivation. At least talking to your friend when you're drunk can lead to some funny conversations. Conversations/socialization between people who smoked weed is just nothing.
> I have to imagine there's a boom of people trying it for the first time when it becomes legal who then realize it's not as universally enjoyable of a high as alcohol.
I know a number of people in the same boat as you who don't enjoy it and that's perfectly normal. Biochemistry is super complex and even well tested and regulated prescription drugs hit people differently.
I also think we grossly overstate how "universal" the high from alcohol is and as a society often overlook or blame problem drinkers rather than the substance itself. Alcohol intoxication can have wildly different impacts based on lots of factors. If you go to a bar and someone spends the night crying after getting drunk, no one goes, "well, par for the course alcohol is a depressant after all". We just chalk it up to a bad night. Personally, my experiences with alcohol overall are as negative as yours with THC.
There's also a ton of variance in between type of plants, delivery methods, concentrations, etc when starting with THC. You might be grabbing something off the shelf that's the equivalent of drinking 2/3 a bottle of cheap tequila for your first experiment.
>"At least talking to your friend when you're drunk can lead to some funny conversations. Conversations/socialization between people who smoked weed is just nothing."
This is a very individual experience which I don't think can be applied to everyone. I've listened to some pretty funny and interesting weed fueled conversations. I would much rather be the sober guy with some stoners than the sober guy with a bunch of drunk people. Like with any drug tho, there's often a line between happy and functional and wrecked.
At the end of the day tho, we can all choose which substance we want to partake in based on what we individual want or need. The danger is in using ones individual experience as the measuring bar for everyone else.
Hello - I am sorry that you've had those unpleasant experiences. I, too, have experienced similar feelings. Through legalization (in my state) and experimentation, I determined the root cause (certain types of weed and percentage of THC) of my paranoia/bad feelings. Now, I know what will make me feel good and how to avoid the negative outcomes of weed consumption.
FWIW, high CBD, low THC if I am smoking flower and for edibles I know my limit is a measly 5mg, and I usually start at 2.5mg.
Yep, different drugs for different sorts (or at least different moods and different days).
If you are seeking some general advice:
From my experience context is important. Alcohol is more technically a depressant given what we know of how the chemical interacts with the brain and most people greatly underestimate its depressive qualities, in part because culturally we've built a lot of contexts in which it is safe (for mental health at least) to drink and easier to engage with the fun sides of alcohol and avoid many (but not all) of the triggers/traps that lead to bad (mental health) outcomes.
THC from all the years it has been illegal has nowhere near as much shared cultural context. A lot of "best practices" have been quiet word-of-mouth things rather than background "everyone knows" "common sense". Legalized states are just now starting to find the sorts of contexts that work best for people and how to spread those not just as covert word-of-mouth but as overtly well documented best practices and built-safe environments. (And yeah, there's clearly a lot of bad first impressions which would lead to a noticeable "boom" cycle.)
I've found (because I can be prone to the paranoia myself), some of counter-balancing the paranoia/fear is about support structures. Use a buddy system if you need it. (I think even plush animals sometimes count.) Stick to places that are "safe" or "home" with lots of layers of trust built up already in your sober life. (I've found it is best to avoid liminal spaces like airports or train stations.) One of my fears is apparently that my heart feels like it is racing because of that weird sense of time passage, and wearing a fitness watch helps. I can check the metrics and see things are just fine, very quickly. Eventually you may find you can trust just wearing the watch and don't need to check much/at all.
> if I try watching a movie I can't remember what happened a scene ago so I can't follow the story
There are some old stereotypes about the sort of media that stoners enjoy, and many of them exist for this reason. Following the story of a movie or TV can be tough indeed. Things that don't need that sort of focus to recent past events where you can focus on "the endless feeling present" can be a blast though because every next scene feels like a wild surprise: nature documentaries, kids shows, absurdist comedies, events with lots of "spectacle" (fireworks shows, awards shows, magic shows).
> Conversations/socialization between people who smoked weed is just nothing.
Some of my best conversations have been with stoned friends (while I was sober). There's a stereotype of "stoner wisdom" and it comes from an interesting place. Drunk is often associated with "dumb" and "makes stupid decisions" in the way it plays with the brain and stoned has a "wisdom" to it. It's not always "smart", but it often makes surprise leaps and leads to real, interesting advice. (Some of the best advice in my life has come from stoned friends.)
Indeed, there are several dispensaries nearby to where I live in St. Louis, Missouri — they either opened since legalization or can now sell to recreational users instead of only to those with a medical prescription. Whenever I've passed by, the lines are out the door and down the sidewalk, especially on the weekends.
Revenues have actually declined on a per-state level for three years now in some states despite inflation. General sales tax receipts are up by 27% since 2020 [0] and meanwhile California's weed sales are down. Even better, until recently they were rising at a rapid pace, having rose 2.82x from Q1 2018 to Q2 2020. [1]
The reason why is obvious to anyone who's attended a party in the last few years: weed isn't cool anymore. Partly by being illegal, it used to be cool, but now it's accessible to anyone. A lot of people had that realization when they heard "oh, I'm into weed now" from their uncool middle-aged uncle whose previous hobbies had included LARPing and painting miniatures. It's not even just about the legality though: smoking a joint is a hell of a lot cooler than sucking on a USB stick that smells like candy grapes, and vapes, being far more convenient, have now been tied to weed's image. Something being cool is far better marketing than any ad ever designed.
Some of that may be that cannabis sales are shifting to unlicensed (and thus untaxed) dealers.
WSJ had an article last week about California and NY screwing up legalization but some numbers from California:
$5.4 billion in licensed sales last year vs $8.1 billion in unlicensed sales. Licensed sales have 10% city cannabis tax, 15% state excise tax, and 9.5% state sales tax. With taxes, licensing, etc etc licensed weed is twice as expensive.
incompetent politicians or political bodies have a habit of using whatever income is politically convenient to plug budget gaps. Marijuana is just the latest victim. Whether that destroys the market or ruins peoples lives is ignored so long as it politically tenable.
The market is going through equalization with prices bottoming out over the next 6-12 months. There will be lots of smaller shops bought up by multi-state companies.
I know a number of people who are tired of high priced dispensaries and have started to grow or buy from friends again. Prices everywhere I've seen are really high, for hemp-derived products too.
Anecdotally a lot of people over-used during COVID and have diminished the habit since.
As another mentioned increasing costs in a questionable economy doesn't help either. I've personally experienced shrinkflation to the greatest extent of any consumer product in weed and weed accessories.
Relatedly, it would also be likely to expect a shift in "THC tourism" dollars, as legalization increases, in the people that might before visit the next state over or a remote state and "stock up" some amount of supply for some amount of time between visits versus when they can buy it on demand closer to home and don't need a longer supply cache.
Supply and demand. There are interesting dynamics to that basic model because the legacy market is still alive and thriving, but this is still the answer.
maybe, but this is a highly regulated, highly taxed product, so there is a definite floor to that price. Canada has seen massive amounts of consolidation as the bud comes over the green goldrush
I put off going out of state to buy for a few months when I knew my state was opening up shops soon. Obviously that can't be the entire reason, but I think stuff like that combined with people having more interest when the shops are new combined with the impacts of inflation could easily result in a tiny occasional YoY dip.
The headline number is also a cumulative total since legalization started. The annual tax revenue is around $4 billion:
> According to a new report from the Marijuana Policy Project, cannabis sales tax generated a healthy $3.77 billion in 2022, but that was slightly below 2021’s tax revenue of $3.86 billion.
The article doesn't speculate why revenues are declining. I wonder why. Maybe past high revenues were an artifact of people staying home during COVID? Or is it a result of decreasing prices? I'm not a consumer, so I don't really know what's going on in the market.