At the same time, we have a historic undersupply of homes and have been building less than we need to for a very long time.
So in a few markets with oversupply, there might be a bubble pop, but in many areas with strong economies there's not much to pop.
Vacation homes or other areas with highly variable supply seem more likely to pop, but in the economic power houses of the economy we are still undersupplied and this it self has been a huge limiter on national GDP, by denying people access to higher paying jobs.
Bunch of new homes being built here in socal and the developers have doubled the prices since beginning of the pandemic. As long as the developers can hold on to empty units longer I can see them holding out in hopes people cave and pay. Seems to be working.
What you call a "bunch" is far less than historical norms. We have been in a crunch for so long that even small amounts of building seem like "a bunch" but it's nowhere near building enough for what people need.
While this has been going on for longer in California, and the need is far deeper than most areas, it is a national problem now too.
Not even close to enough. California is a good million units short of where it needs to be. Socal needs to convert the endless supply of ranch houses into 2 and 3 flats.
External consultants (McKinsey, I think?) estimated 3.5 million homes short, and Gavin Newsom campaigned on building that much.
He's going to fall far far short of this goal, because he ignored it for the first years of his governorship, and is only making small moves now, but people trying to accomplish this goal are glad that he's starting to make these small moves.
However, any change will take multiple years to start having effect, and at least 5-10 years to actually solve, so even if he does all the right stuff, Newsom won't be able to say he solved until he's out of office.
So in a few markets with oversupply, there might be a bubble pop, but in many areas with strong economies there's not much to pop.
Vacation homes or other areas with highly variable supply seem more likely to pop, but in the economic power houses of the economy we are still undersupplied and this it self has been a huge limiter on national GDP, by denying people access to higher paying jobs.