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Powered flight certainly progressed for decades before hitting a ceiling. At least 5 decades.

With GPT bots, the technology is only 6 years old. I can easily see it progressing for at least one decade.



Maybe a different analogy will make my point better. Compare rocket technology with jet engine technology. Both continued to progress across a vaguely comparable time period, but at no point was one a substitute for the other except in some highly specialized (mostly military-related) cases. It is very clear that language models are very good at something. But are they, to use the analogy, the rocket engine or the jet engine?




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