Nobody would pay for such maintenance, it would end up costing more than new cars. Checking every valve, bolt, tube, sealing etc. Metal parts get fatigue. Plastics and sealants get weird chemical reactions over time. You would end up with same looking car without most of original components, and that's ridiculously expensive proposition.

Since we talk about systems comprised of at least few thousands of pieces, and failure of most will degrade usability/safety of the car or render it unable to drive, I can't agree with some of your statements. Recycling of course is a valid point but those are not same cars.

Also its trivial for bureaucracies to tax older more polluting cars to hell... people are sensitive to costs. And older cars do pollute more.

The vast majority of people will buy and use an EV. By the time this law comes into force EVs will be so dominate it will be obvious that gas stations are closing (they may become EV fueling stations, but no gas pumps).

A few people will have a niche that EVs can't fill. They will probably get the law changed for their niche, but by then it will be too late for ICEs, even if the law is reversed they won't be coming back.

> A few people will have a niche that EVs can't fill.

'Niche' like at least 1/3rd of the EU population who live in flats without any EV infrastructure?

Even taking the realities of infrastructure out of the equation, most people are going to vote with their wallets and I really don't see EVs gaining majority adoption until the costs of buying an operating an EV drop significantly to at least match ICE cars.

That is something that is solvable with some investment. I'm thinking niche like driving to the North Pole. there are probably a few other weird ones (and some of them will be debated as if they should be or not)

Most machines can last indefinitely with maintenance. The other day I used a printing press that was two hundred years old, was in basically continuous operation for much of that time, and is still used daily, today.

Cars have two obvious problems from a long-term maintenance standpoint: the steel chasis, which is protected from rust by paint. That will absolutely and inevitably rust. The second is that people don't understand maintenance. They'll happilly sit next to a machine that's screaming audibly for lack of oil, and think nothing of it. That's not something that will get better in the future.

Machines with controlled explosions inside them do not last indefinitely. A printing press and an internal combustion engine are not remotely the same from a maintenance standpoint.

Your point seems reasonable, but what's the part that actually breaks? There are lots of examples of ICEs that are over a hundred years old and still in use.

Presumably the engine block would work-harden over time, but it's already very hard and brittle, so I don't see what the problem would be there.

Rust is a major problem for northern countries, cars that would otherwise work ok for long just.. rust through if the body was not properly manufactured

This doesn't match with reality. People like new cars with new safety standards and new technology. Old cars will get perpetually more expensive to fuel and maintain. Fuel standards will become stricter and those old cars will require testing and modifications (as is already the case).

I have no doubt the hobbyists will find a way to keep their old cars as they always have. The rest of us don't want to be wasting our time and money keeping a 30-year-old car in decent condition.

> those old cars will require testing and modifications (as is already the case).

No they don't, that's not the case. Example: Skoda Octavia 1 TDI does not have DPF and nobody is retrofitting DPFs into those cars.

> Modern automobiles are so durable that they can last almost indefinitely with maintenance.

This is so far from the truth it must be satire? Unless by maintenance, you mean the complete replacement of engine, accessories, drivetrain, electrics, electronics, interior, frame/subframes/chassis/body, suspension, wheels, fasterners, etc. Ie every part.

Maybe the mirrors in the sun visors can be used indefinitely. Everything else will wear out.

There is a lot on a modern car that won't last without expensive maintenance. You can keep it going down the road, after 10 years you learn to live with a few broken body parts, wear on the seats, and electronics that don't work. That all could be fixed - but it is cheaper to just buy a brand new car (the type of people driving a car that could either cannot afford a new car, or are too cheap to buy one). I've seen collector cars restored to better than factory new, but it the car was cheaper new (inflation adjusted) than the restore costs. Or more likely the costs were about the same as factory new, but the person doing the restore did it for himself and counted labor costs as zero.

Unless (like during communism in my country) you don't have money on a new car, so you are keeping 20-30 years old car running by self-maintaining it every weekend.

Sure, because you are not counting the cost of labor. Or maybe because labor is dirt cheap where you live. Most people reading this are in a country where labor is not cheap. Even in places where labor is cheap, in general the cost is going up.

Seems like dismantling the hundreds of millions of ICE cars for valuable parts and materials should have some money to be made.

Even better if some of them can be converted - but that might be too difficult

That already happens. Basically every car gets recycled, even if it's just for raw materials.