> e.g something tongue in cheek like dinner at an AI powered White Castle

How about robot assembled salad from Sweetgreen [1]? I'd suggest autonomous pizza but Zume is refocusing [2]. Perhaps all topped with basil never touch by human hands [3]?

[1] https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/25/salad-chain-sweetgreen-buy... [2] https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/technology/zume-shu... [3] https://ironox.com/

Best metric I can think of is Revenue on the ChatGpt api. Not sure if that will be public though. Maybe some vague public number? Could bet on over or under $50M/yr, $1B/yr?

Prize could be an A100 or whatever replaces it in 2 years.

Also if your friend is willing to "bet their career on it" there is actually a place where they can literally do that, by applying to OpenAI.

It's very difficult to measure hard numbers but a general framework would be ROI.

How much has been invested in hunan-years worked and CO2 emissions training the models vs. how much value is actually created from the resulting products and services.

Any net positive I would consider success.

Too bad we cannot embrace the humanity outcomes due to ancient unsolved legacies such as war and poverty.

This gives more hope and boost on further development.