Based on everything reported, it seems very likely he will go to prison, or at least stand trial, for everything that has happened. It's not clear why it's taking so long, there might be jurisdictional/logistical issues with the fact that he's in the Bahamas.
The Dealbook interviews and news stories don't seem to be helping him... if anything they generate more outrage and provide more contradictions in his story. He's trying to pitch himself as incompetent rather than criminal, but by constantly talking about the case I think he's undercutting himself.
If I was an investigator, I wouldn't interrupt someone when they're incriminating themselves.
Investigations like this take time. The old saying is the wheels of justice grind slowly, but they grind exceedingly fine.
The new CEO can't even make sense of what happened, and he has access to all internal information. It's going to take a long time to sort out what exactly happened.
Once he is indicted, I'm sure SBF will be well defended. A smart prosecutor will take their time in order to build an iron clad case. If he gets off on a technicality you run the risk of not being able to prosecute again due to double jeopardy. If you want a conviction, you really need your ducks in a row ahead of time.
> but by constantly talking about the case I think he's undercutting himself
Absolutely. The FBI doesn't usually announce investigations, as that puts the person being investigated on notice. Let him talk freely, it's all potential evidence to be used against him later.
Once the FBI announces an investigation, it often means that they have more than enough evidence and are mostly ready to prosecute. By announcing it, they hope to pull in little more information from those in the know, who might not have come forward.
These frauds seem to take place at the speed of light, while it takes forever for justice to show up. But it will show up. The slow speed of investigations is a feature of justice, not a bug.
There's another, newer, saying as well - American's confidence in the US Criminal Justice System is now at 14% [1]. Okay that's not a saying, but it says much more than any saying. That's the lowest level ever, and by an extremely wide margin. It's seemingly approaching zero. And some would say we're divided on everything. Nonsense!
And that is what makes this case so interesting to many, myself among them. It's essentially a very visible test of "our" cynicism, and the integrity of the criminal justice system. SBF has all the right family connections, "donated" to all the right people, and even pulled a reverse Robin Hood - stealing from the poor to give to the rich, all the while also being arguably the most visible advocate for their interests (within his domain).
Not disagreeing that many things are wrong and need fixing in the digital age.
But lately it seem people being divided often has little to do with the underlying facts and basis in reality. A lot of it is perception. Someone recently told me that your opinions say less about you and more about the kind of media you consume. Disagreement, cynicism and conspiracy theories are a sign of the times.
For example, my Red friends to say the Dems are helping SBF because he was their #2 donor. Well SBF was also one of the biggest donors to the Republicans as well. [1] But that doesn't stop some people from believing its a big liberal conspiracy. It's not that their facts are wrong, it's that they only have half the facts and are drawing the wrong (and often biased) conclusions. But I digress.
I'm not as cynical in our justice system as you are. I take comfort in the fact that Elizabeth Holmes is going to prison for 10 years. Like SBF she had all the right connections, was a media darling, compared to Steve Jobs etc. Cynical people thought that she was going to walk, but the conviction proves otherwise.
I don't believe justice in this country is in as bad of a state as many believe. I think it takes a long time, and the younger generations are raised to expect immediate gratification, so they are frustrated at the "lack" of anything happening. I firmly believe SBF is going to prison for a long time. I'll revisit this prediction in 5 years to see if I'm right.
This guy's out there doing who-knows-what in the Bahama's. He should be shipped back to the US and brought into custody. As context Bernie was in jail within a few days.
Getting him back to US requires extradition which will take time and evidence. Alternatively they can try to lure him here (hey bro come visit me in US we got billions to invest) and arrest him after he lands. Also, I believe the government of the Bahamas is keeping close tabs on him, there's a non-zero chance they might arrest him first.
A big difference between SBF and Madoff is that Madoff admitted to his sons that there was ongoing fraud that was about to unravel. He asked them for a week to get things in order. His sons, not wanting to be accessories to the crime their father just confessed to, immediately went to the feds and told them what was going on. They arrested Bernie the next morning. [1]
At this point I think the DOJ is just sitting in stunned silence, quietly hoovering up all the data they can and waiting for him to finish adding more evidence to that pile. This will be a blockbuster of a legal case and I expect they're working to get everything lined up before they open fire.
I would predict SBF will spend the rest of his life in a US prison, but OTOH many people reading the statutes had good arguments why Elizabeth Holmes was going to get what amounted to a life sentence, but look what actually happened.
Answer that. Not prove he wasn't in legal compliance in tricky TOS people signed without reading. Not prove that it wasn't all honest inept code. Not even prove that it turns out an unnamed hacker was not behind it all.
The prosecutor is going into a US court and say he stole how much money in the US?
Keep in mind that the CEO who unraveled Enron among other things has said it's going to take months to figure out how much money still in valid investments owned by FTX and is legitimately not stolen.
(I'm using stole, but lawyers probably would have a different set of terms)
This is a good reason for why it's taking so long -- It seems from a lot of reporting that there was theft/fraud, but prosecutors probably want extremely solid evidence (including some details on where the money went) before arresting, or attempting extradition.
Based on everything reported, it seems very likely he will go to prison, or at least stand trial, for everything that has happened. It's not clear why it's taking so long, there might be jurisdictional/logistical issues with the fact that he's in the Bahamas.
The Dealbook interviews and news stories don't seem to be helping him... if anything they generate more outrage and provide more contradictions in his story. He's trying to pitch himself as incompetent rather than criminal, but by constantly talking about the case I think he's undercutting himself.
If I was an investigator, I wouldn't interrupt someone when they're incriminating themselves.