The bell curve for educated guesses on things that can't be known for sure usually settles on something close to correct. Maybe they're onto something! (This at least usually works with guessing the amount of candy in a jar)
You've hit the nail on the head though - "educated". Perhaps unfair, but I find it hard to believe that people making guesses on these items could be genuinely educated regarding the issues surrounding them.
I completely include myself in this category - what do I know about the logistic changes needed to change manufacturing for some of these devices, or market demand etc. I can speculate regarding the technology, but even then it's just speculation based on a totally superficial understanding. It's so easy to ignore things like FDA approval, production scale up, resource shortages etc.
