Given the large deficits we've run since the 80s and the lack of inflation during those 40 years, I'm going to go ahead and guess that the prime suspects for inflation are covid related supply issues and logistics issues. But since the labor market is tight, you know the fed will not miss the chance to crush workers, so expect rate hikes for a long time.
The deficit grew to twice what it was after 2008, the scale of spending is quite a bit different than the recent past (trillion dollar bills are the new $100 billion in the US). The same spending pattern has happened across western countries around the world who are facing similar inflation (and supply side) issues, so the pressure has been global.
