No, survivorship bias doesn't say anything about probabilities or even the correctness of conclusion, it's a selection bias. It certainly doesn't imply probability "falling to ~0 at 2".
Anyway it doesn't really matter since this isn't a study or an attempt to prove something, I just think it's funny how well this article fits that definition so I pointed it out.
If it is probable that a person will be able to repeatedly accomplish something, looking primarily at successes isn't survivorship bias — it's just the way the numbers naturally fall out.
Anyway it doesn't really matter since this isn't a study or an attempt to prove something, I just think it's funny how well this article fits that definition so I pointed it out.