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Here's a prediction:

Crypto is the next cancer from cigarettes, lead in fuel, climate change etc.

The thing linking them is that even after it was widely acknowledged these were a net negative, they continued for a long, long time. Harming a wide group of people uneccesarily and massively profiting a select few.

If I'm correct, the key indicator will be right wing governments around the globe being paid off to allow the abuse to continue and their media going on the attack.

Communist computer scientists, what do they know? They just want to keep the poor white men from getting rich because of political correctness etc. etc. Anyone seen any signs of that yet?

Hope I'm wrong, worried I'm correct.




Proof of Work and Bitcoin may be generally trash, and unless they evolve they will eventually crash and burn, but "crypto" on the whole encompasses a wide range of good and bad applications.

Here's a prediction: Over the next decade or two, scalable proof of stake crypto currency networks and blockchain-based systems will probably be used as base settlement layers for a growing portion of digital payments, disrupting VISA and PayPal and enabling new ways of sending and coordinating value online.


This world would suck for the same reason I don’t use debit to pay for things from untrusted merchants. Credit cards provide an incredible security layer in transaction reversibility that allows you to transact with unknown merchants. Internet payments doesn’t work without it. What cryptocurrency is going to solve this problem?


You realize that in many countries, credit cards are not common? People pay for things online with their debit card all the time.

Not all consumers need or want transaction reversibility, especially if they trust the contracts they are using, like depositing tokens into a DEX contract address that has not changed for several years - this has an extremely low counterparty risk.

A VISA- or PayPal-like reversible payment system is definitely possible to build on ETH as a rollup that takes a 1-5% fee of all transactions in order to cover cost of chargebacks. Many applications already support various forms of transaction reversal in their contracts, look at USDC.


So we reinvent a VISA-like entity that charges VISA-like fees to replace VISA. This seems like a very impressive and extremely novel innovation.


Pretty much. Now VISA has to compete with every other protocol deployed on the permissionless network, some of which may charge lower to no fees and provide different user experiences. Users can also, as they desire, connect with the base layer if they wish to circumvent the VISA-like protocols entirely. An example of that might be a company moving or exchanging several million dollars without wanting to deal with VISA-like fees and control mechanisms.

In truth, we may not see VISA-like protocols on the blockchain for some time, as most users are finding the counterparty risk small enough with the base layer that there is little demand for chargebacks and transaction disputes.


As evidenced by the hard fork of Ethereum when a smart contract didn't work the way it was supposed to. There clearly is demand for something like transaction disputes.


Yes, if the vast majority of the users in the network come to clear consensus on forking the protocol to enact a single change, they can do so. This is not a bad thing, it’s similar to how we fork our laws in the real world as we realize they contain pitfalls and loopholes.

This is very different from individual transaction disputes on a VISA-like protocol, and the DAO fork doesn’t suggest that transaction level disputes are in particularly high demand (in 7 years this happened one time on the network, and you call that demand? lol).


> it’s similar to how we fork our laws in the real world as we realize they contain pitfalls and loopholes

I don't think politics work like you think they do. If the opposition could just "fork the law" when they don't like what the government is doing, there'd be millions of sovereign countries by now.


If you don’t like part of Ethereum’s protocol, you can fork it today. It’s open source. It doesn’t mean anybody will follow your chain.



>If I'm correct, the key indicator will be right wing governments around the globe being paid off to allow the abuse to continue and their media going on the attack.

>Communist computer scientists, what do they know? They just want to keep the poor white men from getting rich because of political correctness etc. etc. Anyone seen any signs of that yet?

This strikes me as a rather wrong-headed take. What I've actually seen happen is several statist types propose creating a centralized (government controlled and monitored) digital currency in response to the rise of cryptocurrencies. China's e-CNY is the most obvious example, but there have been similar proposals from politicians and bureaucrats in the US, EU, and elsewhere, with the idea being that the governments can track financial activity even more closely than they already can.

FWIW, I'm pretty anti-crypto and think there are better alternatives for 99% of the things I see crypto proposed as a solution for.




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