It might be a good short opportunity... I imagine a lot of customers are kicking off their own internal process for migrating away from JIRA. By the time they actually do, it'll be at least a couple of quarters from now, which is when the customer hit will start materializing in quarterly results for the company.
Maybe time to throw a few chips at some long term puts?
I wouldn’t short. They just slapped 400+ customers and likely hundreds of thousands of users in the face and the C-suite didn’t think it was important to even acknowledge.
That might look like incompetence, but I think it’s confidence. They know the switching costs for large orgs are so high they can treat these people like trash and few if any will leave. I wouldn’t be surprised if the total number of seats among affected customers has gone up in a few months. By failing to acknowledge the problem they’ve kept it out of the mainstream media and financial press.
They have their customers by the balls and don’t respect them. That’s a short term bullish signal to me.
Aren't most customers in 12+ month contracts? A migration seems like it would take many months to select a new vendor and migrate regardless. Be careful about the date on those puts. It's pretty hard to out-think the market on this kind of stuff. I'd just as soon bet the other way: few customers will actually churn and in 6 months this won't really matter.
They might even get some new customers after people who never used it look at their site and offerings.
Disclaimer I have puts that expire 4/22 (purchased yesterday) so I hope they go down in the short term. Seems like a total loss now after being up 50% yesterday.
I bought puts yesterday morning. Was up 50% by the end of day but now down to 50% of what I paid.
Mine expire 4/22 but I have more calls open at the moment anyways so if I had to choose between this going down or the market up I'll take a full loss on these puts (seems likely at the moment)
