No way. At least 50 years to get somewhere. But we need computing power 1000 times better and optics at least 16 times better. Before that it never can fix all scenarios
Here is a video of a customer vehicle driving on snow covered roads, now. It isn't perfect, but it is leagues better than a year ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDK3dRHxOzo He has tons of other drives in various weather/road conditions.
Improved software, and maybe one hardware refresh should be sufficient to get us all the way there for 99.99% of drives.
It appears that if it doesn't know where the lanes are, it drives in the middle of the road. If someone turned onto the street from 0:35 to 0:42 there would have been a problem.
I'm still waiting to see how an AI would handle Figure 5-1 from that. And no, the snow plow's solution of burying magnets in the road isn't practical (Cost of infrastructure installation for the test sites is approximately $11,000 per kilometer ($17,000 per mile), including surveying, installation, and magnets).
