I'm not an expert, but sounds to me that Germany halting the nord stream pipeline, influenced Putin to go over the already under russian controlled area. I ask myself if removing Russia from SWIFT wouldn't make Putin just keep rolling over until the German border. In another hand, from the strategic point of view, Europe should have one more economical pressure option in case Russia doesn't stop in Kiew, and the SWIFT is this last option before War.
Yes and No. For Putin, the control and Donetsk and Luhansk was already planned. Everyone in the intelligence scene could note some details like: The Russian Tanks with extra fuel tank and the national guard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Guard_of_Russia presence in the region. What came next, IMO, was decided after the Nord Stream 2 halting. Russia will be now in the Polish border and therefore it gets more power in the negotiation table.
> Not sure what you mean by SWIFT being the last option before war, war is happening right now.
The War isn't happening for NATO. NATO as we all know won't do anything regarding the Ukraine invasion. If Russia starts to bulk troops on the Polish border - or any other NATO member, EU will try to solve it diplomatically using the SWIFT option before really going to War.
He means its the last card the west can play short of war. If they unleash all of their cards now they have no chance at dealing with Putin in the next few days. As small as the hope sounds, its possible Ukraine could resist enough and possibly hold some ground, and Putin could be convinced to stop his advance at some point with the threat of swift being revoked.
Our cards won't change in the next few days. If playing them now or a few days ago wouldn't have stopped Putin, why do you think those same cards would work better once Putin has gone even further and owns Kyiv?
