Exactly, the post is a Scott Alexander post so he'd never object to the concept of priors. There's nothing wrong with having a strong prior that the volcano's not going to blow up this year, that it's just the wind not a break-in, or that it's most likely an ear infection with a tumour so unlikely as to not be worth the radiation risk and cost of a CT.
Really, the article is about people who don't bother to monitor the likelihood that updates their prior because the prior is so damn explanatory anyway. But, a doctor treating an ear infection isn't doing this because the act of treatment is also a test. It's not the 'did the volcano erupt' or 'did we get burgled' test with huge downsides because even if there's a serious underlying issue a week or two is unlikely to change too much. If the purported infection doesn't clear up then it's time for the doctor to update their prior and reconsider what investigations or treatment options are now appropriate. Even better than taking your history to your next doctor, keep seeing the same doctor.
Really, the article is about people who don't bother to monitor the likelihood that updates their prior because the prior is so damn explanatory anyway. But, a doctor treating an ear infection isn't doing this because the act of treatment is also a test. It's not the 'did the volcano erupt' or 'did we get burgled' test with huge downsides because even if there's a serious underlying issue a week or two is unlikely to change too much. If the purported infection doesn't clear up then it's time for the doctor to update their prior and reconsider what investigations or treatment options are now appropriate. Even better than taking your history to your next doctor, keep seeing the same doctor.