All of them are missing a big part of the analysis, that it is often not a choice of “a rock” but of a person with a heuristic that works way less than 99.9% of the time. A security guard that constantly harasses shoppers, a “futurist” that buys into every new fad, the conspiracy theorist that believes everything on Facebook.

Would anyone really think a weatherman that had say a 70% correct heuristic was good? Or go to a doctor like that?