> But then you consult a bunch of experts, who all claim they have additional evidence that the thing won’t happen, and you raise your probability to 99.999%
I lose the line of reasoning here - 99.9 to 99.999 doesn't happen if you don't have new evidence, so why would you raise your probability? or maybe i'm being too literal?
You think the supposed experts have additional evidence, so you're treating their claim to have evidence as evidence in itself. You're unaware that they have no more evidence than you already did.
I lose the line of reasoning here - 99.9 to 99.999 doesn't happen if you don't have new evidence, so why would you raise your probability? or maybe i'm being too literal?