There's some very interesting discussion here and in the comments. Many have pointed out the similarity of ideas to Taleb's Black Swan, and extremisation, which was also brought up in Superforcasting by Gardner and Tetlock.

Instead of such a discussion, I'd like highlight a book that provides the "oposite" perspective: Gerd Gigerenzer's Rationality for Mortals. Gigerenzer presents the an anti hyper-rationalist perspective for heuristics, arguing that they're not only human, but necessary and inevitable for time and compute bounded beings.