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The point is that it is a completely different framework to think about the future.

The exponential model is something close than what is behind Ray Kurzweil reasoning about the Great Singularity and how the future will be completely different and we're all going to be gods or immortals or doomed or something dramatic in that vein.

The S-Curve is more boring, it means that the future of computing technology might not be that mind blowing after all, we might already have reaped most of the low-hanging fruits.

A bit like airplanes, or space tech you know, have you seen those improving by a 10x factor recently?



>A bit like airplanes, or space tech you know, have you seen those improving by a 10x factor recently?

Is space tech included ironically here? There's been 10x (or more) improvements across dozens of space tech problems in the last couple decades.


Could we send people on the Moon if we wanted? We might but I am honestly not completely sure.

Would that be 1000x, 100x or even 10x easier than 60 years ago? Well, I don't think so.

From my perspective space tech has never quite leaved the prototype phase, for some reason.




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