https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l...
which is an updated take on the methodology of Dick Heuer's Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
https://prasadcapital.com/2018/07/03/book-summary-psychology...
, which itself was driven by the research into words of estimative probability by CIA legend Sherman Kent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probabilit...