I think you're looking to have an answer and seeking to justify that answer. There's not just one model. There's dozens of competing ones. So we have to draw one of two concussions.
If climate is only model able by chance, we got lucky a lot of times. Someone should be buying a lot of lottery tickets because the science community is way luckier than the expected value. That dozens of independent research teams were about to exactly cancel out errors in precisely the right way (but different from one another) to have good predictive power. Certainty too lucky for a purely random process. So what's the bound? Clearly this process is repeatable.
The models are accurate and science can deal with probabilities. Or rather that scientists (experts) know what they're doing.
The odds on the first conclusion are too high. The second is easier to justify. I think it's easier to justify that you're not as informed on the subject and that there's nuance you're missing that the experts know (I'm confident they know more than me).
I am saying while 40-year-old model is likely accurate by skill, it was luck 50-year-old model produced similar results to 40-year-old model. The reason is aerosol. Agreement of multiple models doesn't invalidate this because all 70s models didn't include aerosol.
Just because they didn’t include aerosols doesn’t mean they’re useless. Aerosols might be important, but they’re not the single determining factor for climate change, there are many factors.
If your model includes most of determining factors for the system your modelling, then it’s going to produce pretty good results. There will be places where the model drifts, but you still expect the model to be pointing in pretty much the right direction. As you introduce more factors, your model starts to model details with increasing accuracy, but again you don’t expect it to substantially change the macro result.
I’m short we’re perfectly capable of knowing that the warming will happen without knowing about aerosols, the direction of travel is perfectly predictable, aerosols will only change the amount of travel, and not by an order of magnitude.
If climate is only model able by chance, we got lucky a lot of times. Someone should be buying a lot of lottery tickets because the science community is way luckier than the expected value. That dozens of independent research teams were about to exactly cancel out errors in precisely the right way (but different from one another) to have good predictive power. Certainty too lucky for a purely random process. So what's the bound? Clearly this process is repeatable.
The models are accurate and science can deal with probabilities. Or rather that scientists (experts) know what they're doing.
The odds on the first conclusion are too high. The second is easier to justify. I think it's easier to justify that you're not as informed on the subject and that there's nuance you're missing that the experts know (I'm confident they know more than me).