> Two things seem pretty clear from the data. The first is that myocarditis rates are much higher in unvaccinated young men who get COVID than those who get the vaccine. And the second is that you almost certainly will get COVID eventually.
Given that it is well documented that the vaccine reduces the severity of the disease I would also expect it to modify the risk of myocarditus in some way (I assume that it reduces the risk)... That further complicates the picture...
Wouldn't you need to look at the
P(covid | no_vaccine) * covid_myocarditus_risk
vs
P(covid | vaccine) * covid_myocarditus_risk + vaccine_myocarditus_risk
Also this should be during the vaccine covid prevention efficacy window