I agree the stock market has positive skew but in your career you will have enough bets to smooth out the effects of betting on a single stock. Additionally, you're not really making the same bet as an equity investor because your bet has optionality. Your downside is capped at less than a year in loss earnings because if the stock goes down and the company cannot bring you back up to market rate you just switch companies. If the stock goes up, you enjoy 4 years of above market compensation before getting reset to market rate.
I've never been in the situation of a significantly down price over more than a year. Is it normal that the firm will give 'refreshers' to get back to the target comp in that case?
