There are definitely albums I have listened to so many times that the streaming payments would outperform the purchases, but I've also bought some albums more than once, too!
Most people, and most albums, though, are not going to outperform those economics. Simply put, $5-10 a month for access to 15M tracks is a joke and a big loss for the industry. I look forward to the labels realizing it and walking away.
Basically, you're paying $5-10 for a maximum of 4800 songs - or, between $.001 and $.002 per track, if you listen constantly.
Or, from the other side:
Spotify's premium is $10/mo, which comes with no ads. They pay $.003 out to each band - let's just pretend they follow Amazon's 'agency' policy of a 70/30 split, so Spotify's making roughly $.001 on each song, and it's costing them $.004 total for that song (hypothetical - just stick with me). If we assume they're not losing money, then an average $10/mo user must listen to at most 2500 songs per month, and if Spotify's costs are higher than $.001 per track, the number goes down.
Point is, the industry's providing _ACCESS_ to 15M tracks, but they're only having to deliver ~2500/mo - but that's a different bundle of 2500 songs for each user. It MAY make sense from their end just to call it 'unlimited' and rely on the fact that the user can't consume music fast enough to really upset the economics for them.
(Incidentally, if you were to decide to listen to each of those 15M songs once, you'd wind up paying:
15,000,000 Songs * 3min/song = 45,000,000 min
45,000,000 min = 750000 hrs = 31250 days ~= 1027 months
1027 months * 10/mo = $10,270
The record labels, then, value their entire collection of music at $10,270 - if you only listen once!)
I am not sure how I feel about the first. On the second, it's very different. You don't get to pick what you want to hear, when you want to hear it. So, you discover something new on the radio, if you want it, you go buy it. You don't just sit and wait for it to come on again. With Spotify, you hear something you like, you have no reason at all to support the artist with a purchase, and you'd have to listen a ton of times for them to make any money.
Fair enough, I've bought albums several times (vinyl to cassette to CD to MP3). Don't think I've ever bought an album on the same format twice unless it was by accident. But haven't we all had it with those format switch games? I bought some MP3s, I don't expect ever to buy them again.
BTW, most of those 15M tracks are deep in the long tail of obscurity that would never see the light of day without an all you can eat subscription model.
I have re-bought CDs I lost, or albums that got scratched that I loved, or given my copy to people who I wanted to become fans, and then re-bought my own copy.
As for those buried tracks, keep in mind that it's unlikely that Spotify will cut anybody a check for $0.029, or even 10 times that amount. So unless those albums get listened to a lot, they're not any better off in Spotify.
Most people, and most albums, though, are not going to outperform those economics. Simply put, $5-10 a month for access to 15M tracks is a joke and a big loss for the industry. I look forward to the labels realizing it and walking away.