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I liked the previous title about the Monster of the Cascadian Basin. I looked it up (found nothing) but came across this on the cascadian subduction zone:

https://pnsn.org/outreach/earthquakesources/csz

This is what's responsible for "megathrust" earthquakes on the west coast every 400-600 years. It seems we're early for one of those, so this is probably not that. I'd love to see more info on the significance, if any, of this movement.




More accurately, these quakes are on a strike-slip fault (named the Blanco Fracture Zone) on the other side of the Juan de Fuca plate from the Cascadian Subduction Zone. This fault won't directly produce 'the big one' but this movement will be building pressure and tension in the subduction zone.

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/08/1062365995/50-earthquakes-hit...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sci...


there is a great article on this in the new yorker that has been discussed here a few times. Won some awards for its writing too: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big...


Yes, that article is a classic, in the Venn diagram intersection of "hard science explained well" and "creative ways to get historical data" and "both local and federal government failure to plan or address known issues" and "we were warned" and "absolute nightmare fuel".

If/when the Cascadia superquake kicks off, everyone will be passing that link around, so you may as well read it now.


What would you have them do? Have everyone move out of the PNW?


It's not up to me, so please temper that impulse to shoot the messenger. But retrofitting or even rebuilding homes, schools, hospitals, bridges, etc. would be a great start. Proactively holding more mandatory earthquake drills, not just in schools. Adding Earthquake Early Warning devices to schools, office buildings, power stations, transit (which would slow down or stop the train before the shaking starts). Adding more seismic sensors to the currently very sparse Early Warning network, to get better data and therefore better predictions and more warning time to people living away from the epicenter; even ten or fifteen seconds of warning could prevent some injuries.

More info: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/early-warni... and https://www.shakealert.org/implementation/wea/ and https://www.pnsn.org


Look at what first world countries do just after major earthquakes.

Do some of that.

I live in Christchurch, New Zealand, and there were some obvious deficiencies in planning before the 2010 quake, and some obvious fixes were done after the 2010 quake. The main problem is convincing the cynical private and public that some prevention is worth paying for. Also the statistical victims are often not those that are making the financial choices.


My favorite line from that article:

>Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”


These too:

"Until 1974, the state of Oregon had no seismic code...seventy-five per cent of all structures in the state are not designed to withstand a major Cascadia quake..."

"The shaking from the Cascadia quake will set off landslides throughout the region—up to thirty thousand of them in Seattle alone...Fifteen per cent of Seattle is built on liquefiable land, including seventeen day-care centers and the homes of some thirty-four thousand five hundred people..."

"On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals..."


So, time to add a lifestraw and shovel to the go bag.


A 'go bag' containing enough food to survive months would be rather unwieldy to carry around. Hopefully it survives the initial earthquake in an accessible location so permit bugging out. However, its not much use if the house has collapsed or you're stuck at work.


Fortunately, it just needs to get me east of I5, right?


Ah, I misunderstood. I was thinking someone was trying to make it through to the other side without leaving.

In the situation you're describing, you're certainly correct that it's easily carried insurance. Although I'd leave the shovel. The ground is already going to be so toxic that a little bit of poop on the way isn't going to even be noticed. Might as well save the weight in the pack.


My congratulations on your commitment to carrying the joke forward.


> I was thinking someone was trying to make it through to the other side without leaving.

I feel like you're describing a "stay bag."


I have 3 months of MREs for a family of four that fit in two buckets. Easily left in the trunk of the car, but don't forget about water!


Somehow I don't find that too reassuring, even though I am several miles east of I-5... but my house is new construction, and had to pass seismic inspection, so there's some hope.


>"megathrust" earthquakes on the west coast every 400-600 years.

...there are the full-fault (M9) and partial-fault quakes (M8) , and the smaller ones happen more frequently:

https://projects.oregonlive.com/maps/earthquakes/timeline

>The Cascadia Subduction Zone has not produced an earthquake since 1700 and is building up pressure where the Juan de Fuca Plate is subsiding underneath the North American plate. Currently, scientists are predicting that there is about a 37 percent chance that a megathrust earthquake of 7.1+ magnitude in this fault zone will occur in the next 50 years.

https://www.oregon.gov/OEM/hazardsprep/Pages/Cascadia-Subduc...


Expectation is 2 years to restore full utility services throughout much of the region, after it happens. Months, in the highest priority spots.




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