I am curious how long it will take the currently low volume and high margin satellite production industry to re-align to the new paradigm which requires higher volumes and lower margins.
I could see the incumbents being very reticent to do so.
It’s not the new paradigm which requires higher volumes and lower margins, it’s SpaceX’s business model which requires it (or, I suppose, expects it)
It is possible that there is a cap in how much stuff people want to put into space.
(EDIT: I do think it’s possible for SpaceX to exist as an entity that is simply smaller and not wasting its time trying to make its CEO Baron Harkonnen , but hey corporate ownership law amirite?)
Am I alone in thinking that the Earth is finite and humanity has already outgrown it? We need to start making use of resources in space, because if we don't the ecological consequences are dire. Space doesn't have a biosphere. We need to take all the terrible things we're doing to this biosphere and move them out. There is no other long term solution. The needs of humanity will only continue to grow, even if our population levels off.
I very much get the picture that New Space has an if-you-build-it-they-will-come approach which is soon facing a reckoning. It is very important that the whole of society pivots their thinking to the only thing that will give Earth a long-term future.
> It’s not the new paradigm which requires higher volumes and lower margins, it’s SpaceX’s business model which requires it (or, I suppose, expects it)
I used the wrong word there. I was thinking more in terms of: SpaceX enables higher volumes, etc..
I know it's not a perfect analogy but cheap and predictable global shipping enabled business models which were not possible before.
Maybe cheap and predictable access to space will do the same.
Any company that wishes to compete with Starlink needs to be careful of costs. One reason OneWeb ran out of money is that they ended up spending 2X/satellite than their plan, in their fancy high volume factory.
Incumbents are governments, and government's favorite thing to do is increase economic output so as to increase tax revenue among other things, so I'd expect governments to find way to incentivize launches.
As far as how long it will take, it didn't take long for a single company to revolutionize the industry, I expect that those that want to keep up will fill the gap. It's honestly probably going to be mostly new names, some of which we have not heard of yet.
I could see the incumbents being very reticent to do so.