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> other common ones like the MMR vaccine (components range from 30-90% effectiveness)

That's not what the CDC says. The CDC says [1]:

"One dose of MMR vaccine is 93% effective against measles, 78% effective against mumps, and 97% effective against rubella.

"Two doses of MMR vaccine are 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps."

Very different from either flu vaccines or COVID vaccines. Especially since, when talking about any vaccines except flu and COVID, when the CDC says "effective", they mean "prevents you from getting the disease at all or being able to transmit it to others". The people who could still get the disease or transmit it to others are the few percent for whom the vaccine is not effective.

Whereas, when the CDC talks about COVID vaccines, reducing the severity of illness or reducing (not eliminating) the chance of passing it on to others are what you get if the vaccine is "effective" for you. So not only has the meaning of "vaccine" been changed, the meaning of "effective" has been changed as well.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html




My understanding is that the 88% number for mumps is the upper end of the effective range:

> MMR vaccine is very safe and effective. The mumps component of the MMR vaccine is about 88% (range: 32-95%) effective when a person gets two doses; one dose is about 78% (range: 49%−92%) effective.

Per https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mumps/index.html

> Whereas, when the CDC talks about COVID vaccines, reducing the severity of illness or reducing (not eliminating) the chance of passing it on to others are what you get if the vaccine is "effective" for you. So not only has the meaning of "vaccine" been changed, the meaning of "effective" has been changed as well.

If we're talking this definition got covid vaccines, then the covid vaccines are much more effective than flu vaccines (and probably on par with MMR). If we're using a consistent definition of effectiveness, then covid vaccines are probably slightly less effective than the flu vaxes.


The page you reference is very weird because it's the only vaccine page on the CDC website that gives a range for the effectiveness numbers; all the others just give a percentage. I'm not sure what the range means, unless it's a 95% confidence interval or something like that; but I have great difficulty in believing that 95% confidence intervals would be that wide after decades of usage of the vaccine. But in any case, it looks like "effectiveness" has been used differently for the mumps vaccine (or the mumps component of the MMR vaccine) for some time.

IIRC, there was a mumps outbreak in Ontario in 2011 that raised some doubts about the effectivness of the mumps component of the MMR vaccine; possibly the ranges are from studies done of that outbreak. But again, if the ranges are 95% confidence intervals (and I can't imagine what else they could be), they are atrociously wide for a disease and a vaccine that has been around this long.

It is possible, I suppose, that almost all vaccines really are that uncertain in their effects; but if that's true, it should make us much, much less confident about the wisdom of vaccine mandates in general, and COVID vaccine mandates in particular. If we can still be that uncertain about a vaccine that has been around for decades, how much more uncertain should we be about one that was only discovered last year?




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