> I'm not seeing any 'blowout' prices on new construction in the short term
We are in a housing shortage [1] which is driving a home-construction boom [2] powering a construction-labor shortage [3].
Until that labor shortage is resolved, via higher pay (which, depending on the rate of new entrants, will either reduce margins or be permanently passed along to consumers) or via new recruits, raw-materials cost advantages aren't going to be passed along to consumers.
I've been discussing with builders for the past few months and they state that the main issue is the lack of low-skilled laborers. They claimed that many workers at that level left >18 months ago and haven't returned due to the protracted, bonus unemployment that they were receiving, which recently has expired.
Almost all contractors/builders expect the low-level workers that have been on the sidelines to return over the next few months and project to be able to handle 2x the work by Spring 2022.
> They claimed that many workers at that level left >18 months ago and haven't returned due to the protracted, bonus unemployment that they were receiving, which recently has expired.
Doubt. I've been on unemployment before. If you're skilled in the slightest, they are putting your ass to work quickly. If you're unskilled, but can lift 30lbs, then they are putting your ass to work pretty quickly. The people managing to run out the clock on unemployment are basically 50+ year old women, or those who are really good at gaming the systems which are not easily gamed.
I built a house in 2018 and there was a huge construction labor shortage even them. Partially due to difficulty getting immigrant workers and partially because people who left the business after 2009 are only recently starting to be replaced.
People were not receiving typical unemployment benefits. When you look at the size of the benefit amounts from the perspective of a working class person or Jr Employee, it was a no brainer: Stay at home, make more money.
Check out the number of people who were still receiving unemployment when the federal bonus ran out and compare that to the number of open entry level positions. People were/are absolutely choosing to say home instead of finding work.
Who can blame them! It is the smarter decision.
The US Gov’t should have stepped this down much earlier. Now we have a decent sized group of young people who have spent the better part of two years expecting checks in their mailbox and no student loan payments. Reality is going to hit them hard.
I think our collective charity is running out. IMO, All this is going to result in is childish tantrums demanding “basic income” from able bodied people who are finally being forced to to accept the economic realities of their position.
We are in a housing shortage [1] which is driving a home-construction boom [2] powering a construction-labor shortage [3].
Until that labor shortage is resolved, via higher pay (which, depending on the rate of new entrants, will either reduce margins or be permanently passed along to consumers) or via new recruits, raw-materials cost advantages aren't going to be passed along to consumers.
[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/hous...
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT
[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS2300JOL