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To me what is interesting is comparing to other commodities. For Iron you see a similar pattern to lumber. Copper and steel boombed but are only starting to turn now. Is there a lag between raw materials and more refined materials? Silver and gold similarly, though gold has fallen harder. I'm guessing because of all the doomers that buy gold when the economy dips. I don't know how to analyze wheat. And crude oil just flash crashed. Like literal flash crash.

I wonder if anyone knows the reasoning behind these different patterns.




There isn’t a common theme really because these things are nothing alike. Oil crashed because there was a glut and that toxic sludge needs special infrastructure to store it.

You can store a million dollars of gold in a suitcase. A million dollars of oil at $10/barrel (the price right before the crash) is 3.5 million gallons of oil that has to be stored somewhere. And on a physical delivery futures contract you’ve agreed to take that delivery.

99.999% of oil traders are incapable of taking or providing delivery for settlement because of this and what you witnessed was nobody wanting to get caught holding the bag.


Sorry, I'm not trying to say that these things are alike. I'm more curious about the socioeconomic that drive these commodities in different ways. I guess since everyone is telling me that they are different means this point didn't come across. I thought it was obvious since they didn't move in the same manner and I was pointing out different effects to begin with.


Note that you can't just cut down a tree and make lumber out of it. You have to dry it out first, which, afaik can take a long time.

I don't know about the other stuff though.


Most construction lumber is kiln dried in less than five weeks.


There isn't that much excess kilns to dry lumber. They have to be of a certain standard -- especially if they are graded.


Five weeks is a fucking long time !


Yeah, somebody should really teach them about scrum. XTreme sawmilling.




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