Not OP but I am in a similar situation where I am holding out too. I am in the 20-29 age group in Canada, healthy, no co-morbidities, I have been regularly exercising for over a decade, eat healthy, don't smoke/drink/drugs etc. Also I believe I have already caught COVID earlier last year (though I wasn't tested so this could be wrong).
There's been a total of 67 deaths in my age group for entire Canada in entire 20 months of the disease. Even the hospitalization in the entire 20 months for my age group has been 3,144 which isn't much in my eyes. And vast majority of these occurred in people who had pre-existing conditions.
And as it has now been widely reported, vaccinated can not only catch covid, they have the same (and sometimes higher) viral load as unvaccinated and can infect others. And the vaccine is waning off in 3-6 months. So I don't see how me getting vaccinated is "for the common good".
Canada is also 2-3 months behind Israel in terms of COVID trends (case peaks). So what's happening in Israel right now will happen in 2-3 months from Canada.
So I don't see how I can benefit from it and am willing to take chances.
What we should be doing is saving the vaccines for the elders for booster shots and working on improved vaccines for the new variants. There's a huge population in the world which can't even get their first dose of vaccine while here we are giving out 3rd doses.
>they have the same (and sometimes higher) viral load as unvaccinated and can infect others.
The higher part is categorically untrue. The 'same' part is only true in a very narrow sense. Yes, vaccinated individuals have peak viral titers that are the same level as unvaccinated. But vaccinated individual titer levels drop off substantially faster than unvaccinated individuals. So, while an immunologically naive individual might be infectious for 5 or 6 days, a vaccinated individual may only be infectious for 1 or 2.
This is exactly what one would predict based on our understanding of the human immune system. Memory B cells that respond to the antigen would start kicking out antibodies. Some will also undergo further affinity maturation with the Delta antigen. Affinity maturation of these B cells will occur much faster since the target is already very close.
>And the vaccine is waning off in 3-6 months. So I don't see how me getting vaccinated is "for the common good".
As stated above, you would be less infectious having had the vaccine.
One thing to consider is that the outcome of COVID is not 'alive or dead'. There is a spectrum of outcomes that are not captured in official mortality statistics. While it's not clear exactly what that spectrum is (e.g. how many long covid cases really exist), I would note that there are a lot of anecdotes out there about athletes that can't climb a flight of stairs 12 months out after covid.
> The higher part is categorically untrue. The 'same' part is only true in a very narrow sense.
3 studies showing that vaccinated have the same viral load as unvaccinated. When we are talking about many variable numbers, especially of a highly transmissible one, if something can be same, then there are also cases of them being higher.
> We find no difference in viral loads when comparing unvaccinated individuals to those who have vaccine “breakthrough” infections. Furthermore, individuals with vaccine breakthrough infections frequently test positive with viral loads consistent with the ability to shed infectious viruses. Our results, while preliminary, suggest that if vaccinated individuals become infected with the delta variant, they may be sources of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to others.
> One thing to consider is that the outcome of COVID is not 'alive or dead'. There is a spectrum of outcomes that are not captured in official mortality statistics. While it's not clear exactly what that spectrum is (e.g. how many long covid cases really exist), I would note that there are a lot of anecdotes out there about athletes that can't climb a flight of stairs 12 months out after covid.
I am aware. And that's why I have made my own calculated decision. Things such as what to inject in my body are deeply personal choices and I have done my cost vs benefit analysis to conclude I will skip the current vaccine until it gets updated to be more effective for longer periods of time and when long term studies have been done. There's a certain risk we are all willing to take in making decisions. I am willing to take this risk.
Especially when the data is consistently changing. What's the guarantee than the efficacy won't further drop in the next 3-6 months? Nor will there be any long term studies for a while. I can also sympathize with many in the black, hispanic and Philippine community who have severe distrust in the medical community.
Just look at the number of deaths and serious injuries which happen in my age group of 20-29:
>When we are talking about many variable numbers, especially of a highly transmissible one, if something can be same, then there are also cases of them being higher.
So, you went with your feelings as opposed to scientific backing on that one.
By that rational, they could also be lower too. In fact, they could be on average lower.
That statement, however, has some backing. From a vastly larger and more random survey:
>The 13th round of the REACT-1 study looked at swab test data from almost 100,000 people in England between 24 June and 12 July. The research found that infections were three times lower in people who were fully vaccinated, compared to unvaccinated people. The data also suggested that people who were fully vaccinated were less likely to pass the virus on to others, due to having a lower viral load on average and therefore shedding less virus.
> they have the same (and sometimes higher) viral load
The "same" is surely a fact as has been shown by 3 studies. The sometimes higher doesn't mean always higher - it means it can be sometimes higher, sometimes lower but on average, it's been determined to be the same. So it's not based on my "feelings".
What matters is how these will turn out in 3-6 more months. When vast majority of people around the world still haven't gotten a single dose while us healthy and young people are being pushed to take it, it doesn't seem well advised in my eyes. They should be saving these for the elders and especially the ones in poorer countries.
The particular issue is, why specifically mention "sometimes higher" if there are no studies to back up that assertion or if you're going to rationalize your assertion on inferences about statistical noise? "Sometimes", "could", and "can" are doing the work of Atlas here.
It's a genuinely pointless thing to say and somewhat bewildering to see someone continue to defend.
It's important to note the population of those 3 studies.
For generally symptomatic individuals that sought testing, were hospital system patients, or were contact traced individuals, respectively, viral loads(Ct values) are similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated.
Even your first cited paper mentions deficiencies for asymptomatic individuals:
>It is also difficult to determine the rate of asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic breakthrough infections and to ascertain whether viral loads in such cases are as high as those in symptomatic breakthrough infections. The “true” proportion of breakthrough infections with high viral loads would require comprehensive, frequent surveillance testing of vaccinated populations to identify these individuals.
The REACT-1 study data is from a large, random sampling of the population.
This study by FAIR Health attempted to assess the prevalence of Long COVID from billions of US healthcare claims looking for problems that occurred 30+ days after a diagnosis of COVID-19:
> And as it has now been widely reported, vaccinated can not only catch covid, they have the same viral load as unvaccinated and can infect others.
They have the same viral load if they get infected. But the mRNA vaccines still reduce the chance of being infected by about 80% (according to [1]), which in effect reduces the chance of infecting others.
> And the vaccine is waning off in 3-6 months.
Its effectiveness goes down, but it would likely take years for it to go to zero. Regardless, that's what booster shots are for.
> There's a huge population in the world which can't even get their first dose of vaccine while here we are giving out 3rd doses.
Please don't hang out in public & around vulnerable people (kids, elderly) or those who live with them. There's only one way to be responsibly unvaccinated, and that's very cautiously.
(This whole "vaccinated people have higher viral loads of Delta in their mouths" thing makes me doubt your understanding of the science, as well.)
> This whole "vaccinated people have higher viral loads of Delta in their mouths" thing makes me doubt your understanding of the science, as well.
Why are changing what I said? I never said mouth. Where are you getting that from?
Please refrain from using snark and ad-hominem attacks on HN. Especially when you yourself seem to not understand that kids are the least vulnerable group.
There's been a total of 67 deaths in my age group for entire Canada in entire 20 months of the disease. Even the hospitalization in the entire 20 months for my age group has been 3,144 which isn't much in my eyes. And vast majority of these occurred in people who had pre-existing conditions.
And as it has now been widely reported, vaccinated can not only catch covid, they have the same (and sometimes higher) viral load as unvaccinated and can infect others. And the vaccine is waning off in 3-6 months. So I don't see how me getting vaccinated is "for the common good".
Canada is also 2-3 months behind Israel in terms of COVID trends (case peaks). So what's happening in Israel right now will happen in 2-3 months from Canada.
So I don't see how I can benefit from it and am willing to take chances.
What we should be doing is saving the vaccines for the elders for booster shots and working on improved vaccines for the new variants. There's a huge population in the world which can't even get their first dose of vaccine while here we are giving out 3rd doses.