Being a movement in stark opposition to the current authority can be a powerful rallying force. Resentments are tremendously motivating. We see plenty of recent examples of that in the US itself.
Therefore it's not so surprising that the Taliban regained a lot of popular support, especially given the oft mentioned corruption of the prior government.
Of course now the boot is on the other foot, and the Taliban must provide the security and economic guarantees of a civil society, and the jury is out on both their willingness and ability to do so.
If they fail because they are too fixated on waging a puritanical religious war both within and without Afghanistan, financed by wealthy outside countries with their own agendas, they will be overthrown again, either from within, or from outside.
> If they fail because they are too fixated on waging a puritanical religious war both within and without Afghanistan, financed by wealthy outside countries with their own agendas, they will be overthrown again, either from within, or from outside.
Violent oppressive dictatorships can last very long tho.
Even still, those authoritarian governments have to serve the needs of a large subset of the population, often biased on ethnicity, and have an overwhelming monopoly of force. Neither of those is likely in Afghanistan.
The Taliban themselves are motivated by the rather modern goal of uniting the country's fractious and diverse ethnic landscape ... albeit under the banner of their extreme interpretation of Islam.
As per the opinion of the author, the Afghanistanis have no permanent affiliation. There is no ideological or ethical adherence to a particular side.
Sure, the top leaders might be so, but ground level fighters consider it a job. So, having a large number of fighters given amnesty and absorbed into the govt. would have, it is speculated, reduced a lot of expenses of running the country.
Apparently, there is also no retribution for ground level soldiers if they switch sides and switch back and what not.
Personally I suspect that ethnic and tribal lines are the ones not to be crossed.
Seeing what the Taliban were able to do after being “completely defeated” makes me wonder if Karzai’s vision was realistic at all