Indeed “global warning” is not much of a concern. CO2 levels aren’t even that concerning, both levels have been significantly higher in the past (and supported life), and pose minimal risk. We can adapt to it, but would cause some hardship. We are also exiting an ice age, who knows what’s really earths “norm” over hundreds of thousands of years.
My real concern are things like man made chemicals, pesticides. Which have made it into every component of our food and water supply. To put it in perspective, I have a very rural farm - no row crops for tens of miles. There are so few bugs it’s spooky. There are significantly fewer birds. My Bees die most years, even in warmer weather.
There’s also estrogen in our water ways, micro plastics, etc
The reason that’s the “real concern” is it can take out all humans very very quickly. Like a generation, where as global warming is survivable.
While the co2 levels and temps have been higher in the past, rate of change is the most important factor here. You incorrectly assess the risk by ignoring the fact that it took tens of thousands of years to move those numbers.
The problem is that most of our food chain is going to have major issues adapting at a speed that matches the rate of change. Pesticides and chemicals are certainly problematic as well, but moving the global needle so much over a 100-250 year timeline is a huge issue.
Not just the food chain but the natural environment as well. Animals can migrate (theoretically, if they have somewhere to migrate to), but trees that sprouted in the right climate a hundred years ago might be in the wrong climate now. And animals that depend on those forests are going to be in trouble if they aren't healthy.
When changes happen on timescales that are slower than forests and ecosystems can naturally grow and spread that's not such a problem because you at least have a mostly-stable ecosystem at any given point in time.
I mean, if the sun increases it’s energy output by 1% or 2% that would dramatically change our temperatures. Much much more than CO2..
Think of how much the earths tilt impacts weather of the seasons.
That being said, 1880 - 2020 is an almost meaningless range of time. Temperatures are seasonal and that’s only 140 data points per season. It may not even be statistically significant and our historic measurements weren’t necessarily super accurate.
We have had a lot ice melt during that timeframe (but it’s been melting for thousands of years). we are exiting an ice age, we should expect the temperatures to naturally increase. The sun could have increased output 10k years ago, but it’s taken this long for all the ice to melt.
I’m not claiming certain things such as CO2 don’t make an impact. I’m saying what you linked isn’t proof, it’s evidence. There’s still many unknowns and we can’t make absolute determinations.
Your assertions are at odds with the data and an entire field of professionals who dedicate their lives to analyzing it. What makes you think you know more than them?
I’ve implemented models for two well cited published papers. While I didn’t develop the model I implemented it. I’m familiar with those “professionals”.
These models are notoriously bad at generating predictions historically. Today, we have better modeling, BUT they rerun the models over and over again tweaking them to get the results they want. Then they don’t do corrections such as Bonferroni correction.
At the end of the day, the data isn’t there.
Finally, the funding and scientific community have a bias. Good luck trying to come out with a paper showing the community is not taking everything into account or has made a mistake.. you can only do that with new data, which takes years or decades
So I guess it's just a coincidence that the predictions about global temperature rise that the models have been making for decades are coming true? And, if anything, it's turning out that they have been too conservative in their estimates of the rate of warming?
>CO2 levels aren’t even that concerning, both levels have been significantly higher
The sun grows stronger over millions of years (and it got colder over the last 200 years), however that doesn't matter because the earth is a balanced system where an equal amount of energy enters and leaves the system. The CO2 concentration will automatically adjust so that temperatures can fall within a narrow band.
Therefore it is completely unsurprising that CO2 levels have been higher in the past, they had to be higher to reach the same temperatures. If we reach historic CO2 levels today then we will also reach higher temperatures than in the past.
I've recently read that the word "pesticide" is a weaponized term, in that you wouldn't label human medicine that way, but for ideological reasons this reframing is done to a plant's medicine.
OTH nobody would use medicine daily and call that a natural state of being (unless you're acutally or chronically sick).
Our food supply depends on these plant-medicines becuase without our cultivated crops aren't strong enough to survive or yield significantly less.
It’s not a plant medicine... it’s a killer of pests.
“Weaponized term” doesn’t necessarily matter. I own a farm and agree our food supply is necessary on them. BUT I think the feds need to look into this. There are likely safer pesticides than others. My farm uses none.
> OTH nobody would use medicine daily and call that a natural state of being
It's amazing how casually we throw around these "observations" which completely and conveniently memory hole our indigenous friends and neighbors, whose traditions of plant medicine nearly universally include routine relationships with plant medicines in sickness and in health.
Pesticide: Pest (meaning should be obvious) combined with the same ’cide’ as in homicide, regicide or genocide. The term is not weaponized, it refers to a weapon.
My real concern are things like man made chemicals, pesticides. Which have made it into every component of our food and water supply. To put it in perspective, I have a very rural farm - no row crops for tens of miles. There are so few bugs it’s spooky. There are significantly fewer birds. My Bees die most years, even in warmer weather.
There’s also estrogen in our water ways, micro plastics, etc
The reason that’s the “real concern” is it can take out all humans very very quickly. Like a generation, where as global warming is survivable.