I agree but it's worth noting that Beeple was selling JPGs for $5000+ in the mid 2010s as a commissioned artist in the music industry. So the NFTs have also brought some transparency to a successful digital artist along with the crazy valuations.
This seems like a dangerous bet to make... my take on the NFT "market" is that it's money laundering, wash trading (inflating prices to attract suckers to the market) and perhaps in a small part conspicuous consumption. Mostly fraudulent... but would you bet against a fraud?
I would take a broader bet that is not tied to Beeple (i.e. that NFTs of significant artists will have long-term value in a similar manner as a painting).
Is this because you don't have interest in it, or do you have a true justification of this?
I'm willing to take this bet. Just like art, 99% can be bought for $1 at a garage sale, but there will be the 1% that has value to someone.
You are betting against the generation who spends massive amounts on video games costumes, and puts more value into their online image (instagram) than real life image, not finding value in a form of digital scarcity & status. I find that hard to believe.
So the condition of your bet would be that all NFTs everywhere have zero long term value? So something like, by 2030, no non-fungible token will have a monetary value?
I'm not interested in taking the counter party in this bet, but if you were to take a bet in the form "The highest sale price of a NFT in calendar year 20X0 will be no more Y0% of the highest sale price of a postage stamp in that same year.", what would you fill in for X & Y?
I’m over forty and quite frankly, I’m tired of this ageist crap. This entire premise is complete fucking bullshit. Do yourself and everyone over 40 you come into contact with a favour and pretend you never believed anything so toxic.
I'm over 50 and this does not match with my observations of the world. Older people, as a general trend, do in fact seem to be resistant to new ideas. There are exceptions, of course. The trend still stands in my experience.
Then I’m sorry to say it pal, but you’ve got to get out more. Some of the most rebellious open minded people I know are in their seventies. Age is just about completely meaningless and ageism has no place in intellectual communities.
Very often things invented when we are older seem to be utterly pointless to us. We literally can't get why people are excited about them. And I see this tendency in people in my age range more than in my teenagers. I personally have to back up and go from first principles to avoid it.
Everything is exciting - innovation is exciting and new inventions are exciting. If you can't feel it, that's sad and I hope you can get it back but please don't impose your own issue upon an entire age group.
Douglas Adams was a humorist first and philosopher second, quoting him literally is borderline naive.
For starters, not everything invented when you are 15-35 is good. Take reality shows: they were indeed new and revolutionary (exciting idk), but they didn't pass the test of time. Stupid stuff is invented all the time, regardless of people's ages.
An NFT has no more value than a JPG.
I'll longbets anyone that says otherwise.