> COVID's long incubation time while infectious makes it potentially the most lethal disease ever.
"Most lethal disease ever" is a really strong claim, so I would like to see some of the evidence that leads you to believe that. The r0 of measles, which still infects 20 million people a year, is substantially higher than COVID's, and though its death rate in developed countries is lower, the higher r0 means it is potentially more deadly.[1]
Would you share some of the evidence backing the claim that COVID will not/is unlikely to evolve to become less lethal? If COVID did morph into something more lethal, wouldn't that affect its evolutionary fitness in such a way that the more lethal variant would eventually die out, as both SARS and MERS did?
I understand that you feel COVID is a unique threat and needs a unique response. I'm not convinced COVID is so unique that it escapes the same rules of evolutionary biology that impact other viruses, and even if it did, I am not convinced the necessary response is therefore 100% eradication. (And even if I were, I'd be extremely worried about perfect being the enemy of good.)
> But why stay in the line of fire?
We are still, and always will be, in the line of fire. COVID is not the first coronavirus of its kind to come up this way, and it won't be the last.
That doesn't necessarily mean we should or shouldn't eradicate it, but I think there may be a bias here where we assume that because COVID is the disease we're dealing with now, it is also the worst one.
It did - I asked you to provide evidence for that claim, and some of the others you made. It's a strong assertion and it needs strong evidence.
To be clear, I'm not trying to suggest COVID isn't lethal or isn't unique at all. I am suggesting that the idea it is so unique as to be excluded from selective pressure to become less lethal over time is a claim that requires evidence.
"Most lethal disease ever" is a really strong claim, so I would like to see some of the evidence that leads you to believe that. The r0 of measles, which still infects 20 million people a year, is substantially higher than COVID's, and though its death rate in developed countries is lower, the higher r0 means it is potentially more deadly.[1]
Would you share some of the evidence backing the claim that COVID will not/is unlikely to evolve to become less lethal? If COVID did morph into something more lethal, wouldn't that affect its evolutionary fitness in such a way that the more lethal variant would eventually die out, as both SARS and MERS did?
I understand that you feel COVID is a unique threat and needs a unique response. I'm not convinced COVID is so unique that it escapes the same rules of evolutionary biology that impact other viruses, and even if it did, I am not convinced the necessary response is therefore 100% eradication. (And even if I were, I'd be extremely worried about perfect being the enemy of good.)
> But why stay in the line of fire?
We are still, and always will be, in the line of fire. COVID is not the first coronavirus of its kind to come up this way, and it won't be the last.
That doesn't necessarily mean we should or shouldn't eradicate it, but I think there may be a bias here where we assume that because COVID is the disease we're dealing with now, it is also the worst one.
[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...