What's happening in India is a culmination of immense population density, dismissing and ignoring of recommendations by the government, dissemination of propaganda, massive incompetence, etc etc
It's not a binary choice. There is a huge amount of room between the two. I believe you know that, so think about whether your comment was made in good faith.
The situation in India is the result of all the things you mentioned + recklessness of people. You have to see it first hand that how reckless people acted in large cities. They were acting like this covid thing doesn't even exist and that is one crucial point.
Pretty sure if you’d allowed or even encouraged unmitigated spread of the virus, you’d also get the same or similar recession, though perhaps slightly later.
Of course. If going out and working and consuming is dangerous, many people will not do it, even if there is no lockdown. More people will just be extremely careful. And there is some direct cost to the sickeness and death.
if Indian numbers have to be trusted they are really not that bad, some European countries had even worse numbers per capita
people sometimes forget the size of Indian population and just look at nominal numbers instead per capita numbers, considering how poor is India and how bad is Indian healthcare these numbers comparable wiuth Europe are actually pretty low
I don’t think anyone trusts the Indian government numbers; they are downplaying, lying, and just overwhelmed. It will take a long time probably before before we get a real accounting for deaths, but everything I’ve read points to at least 5x - 10x the official numbers.
You’ll eventually get your answer though to the question of “what if we didn’t do lockdowns and just let it run” - I don’t think it will be pretty.
All the news articles I've seen mention that actual numbers are perhaps 10x or more the reported numbers due to lack of testing and overwhelmed healthcare.
Lock downs didn’t last that long. By the time the second wave hit, everything besides large in person gatherings wetback to normal. At least in the mid west.
It wasn't a single sentence. Articles, explainer videos, infographics etc. The goal was to force daily numbers and active hospitalizations below healthcare capacity. To smear out the infections across time. So instead of 2 weeks, it would be several months. The idea was that even if we can't reduce the total infections, we can prevent deaths if we reduce the load on hospitals. But people have extremely short memory span and nobody remembers anymore.
I remember it very well. Yep, they said flatten the curve. People did, there was confusion about masks, guidance changed. The president said some things about bleach, lockdowns, recession, NYC overloaded, stimulus, reopenings, public protests, Sturgis, peace in the middle east, vans picking up people off the street, elections, the Thanksgiving surge, hospitals full, Jan 6. So forgive me if I don't really put a lot of weight into what was initially said at the beginning of the pandemic. It reflected the understanding of the time.
As an aside, I'll just say I my opinion that it worked. With a few limited exceptions we didn't experience what India is doing through right now. I credit lockdowns and mask wearing for much of that.
Oh I'm totally in favor of pushing fat granny in front of the trolley. Take the utilitarian approach! But it does kill younger people in lesser numbers, and potentially permanent damage to be people's brains, cardiovascular systems. What about them?
As an aside, my fat granny is watching my kids right now so she's not totally useless.
