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This is an interesting visualization, but if I'm understanding it correctly it does oversimplify in a big (and potentially misleading) way:

This is what happens if you do all your investing in one big lump sum, e.g. putting one dollar in the market in 1970 and getting out less than a dollar (after inflation) in 1985.

Outside of getting a major windfall (and not dollar-cost averaging), this isn't how investing is done. Investments are typically made as income allows, over the course of decades. Yes, that means some of the dollars you put in are going to be massive losers in the long run. Others are going to be massive winners. What's important is the average over 30-year period of investing followed by a period of withdrawals spread out over another couple decades.

I'd be very curious to see a similar visualization which illustrates the same point for spans of time rather than lump-sum-in and lump-sum-out.



Actually the modeling I did assume that you invest the same amount every year - its rudimentary but does account for this.


I was talking about the NYT analysis linked in the comment I was replying to, but I'd be curious to see your numbers as well if this is something you've worked out!




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