I wonder if Musk is intentionally bullshitting or if he completely underestimates the problem space because he's confident of delivering big things (SpaceX, electric cars).
The folks at Waymo/Google, some of the smartest people in the industry, admit to how hard of a problem this is and set realistic expectations. For instance, Waymo (and every SDC company except Tesla) say Level 5 autonomy is impossible and they are strictly targeting Level 4. But here is Musk who says "Level 5 will be coming next year" every year. I feel like there is a serious lack of humility at Tesla (or maybe it's just Musk).
Recently I asked myself that same question and came up with a satisfying theory.
Part of Tesla's business model is selling $10k FSD packages based on a promise that they will eventually deliver full self-driving. If, at any point in the future, any evidence surfaces showing Musk or other senior leadership at Tesla did not have confidence in their ability to actually deliver FSD, this would amount to large-scale fraud and may result in a class-action lawsuit.
On the other hand, if in all communication, internal and external, Tesla leadership projects confidence in their ability to deliver FSD, but then "unforeseeable circumstances" prevent them from actually delivering it, then it's not a scam, but just an unlucky turn of events. At the very worst, Telsa might have to partly reimburse their customers, but most likely they can keep the money.
So it does not really matter what Musk believes deep down. It's probably easier to do his job if he consciously makes himself believe that he can deliver.
> If, at any point in the future, any evidence surfaces showing Musk or other senior leadership at Tesla did not have confidence in their ability to actually deliver FSD
Tesla recently said that "Full Self Driving" is not capable of autonomous driving. They tell the regulator one thing and tell their customers another:
The folks at Waymo/Google, some of the smartest people in the industry, admit to how hard of a problem this is and set realistic expectations. For instance, Waymo (and every SDC company except Tesla) say Level 5 autonomy is impossible and they are strictly targeting Level 4. But here is Musk who says "Level 5 will be coming next year" every year. I feel like there is a serious lack of humility at Tesla (or maybe it's just Musk).