Just that increases in risk are usually approximated pretty well by a linear change with dose. Radiation, poison, allergens, etc. Drugs too – the ones where the toxic dose is close to the therapeutic dose are generally pretty nasty even when used as intended. It's possible for there to be a transition between "very safe" and "noticably unsafe" as the quantity of something increases twofold, but a priori unlikely. For this to happen not only in vaccines, but through an unknown mechanism that operates precisely in this particular range, would be truly rotten luck. It's also contradicted (a posteriori) by the evidence I referred to (overdoses and animal models).
This isn't right. Risk from overdoses of drugs, poison, and allergens is *highly* nonlinear. It'd be exceptionally unlikely in the case of mRNA vaccine, but that's the case the majority of the time.
There's a specific minimum dosage most people have of allergen before they hit on a life-threatening reaction. You might be okay with trace amount of peanuts, swell up with one peanut, and die with five. It's pretty consistent, and very nonlinear.
That's why you can build up a tolerance to iocane powder too; small doses won't do anything, while large ones are guaranteed to kill. If it was linear, a 1/10th lethal dose would have a 10% chance of killing you.
I mean, they're all nonlinear at some point in the range of possible doses. Radiation too. I should have specified I was focusing on the "very low" bit of the curves. Chest X-ray vs two chest X-rays, rather than Louis Slotin vs the guy at the back of the room.
Nope. Most medicines are totally nonlinear. Almost any function is affine if you look close enough, but that's different from linear. If you half the dosage of ibuprofen, your odds of complications rarely fall by 50%.
Chest x-ray is pretty linear within reasonable dosage ranges, for much the same reason I'd expect mRNA damage to be.
