Plenty of black swans occur when dictatorship is the regime.

- assassination of dictator => internal turmoil

- early death of dictator => internal turmoil

- scuffle with neighboring country => economic sanctions by the free world

- dictator can't lose face, does something stupid => economic sanctions by the free world

- (Germany, Merkel, CDU) support for the dictator wanes and disappears => economic sanctions by the free world

- local governments cover up economic losses until its too great => hyperinflation, central government collapse

- triggering business defaults leading to dollar shortages leading to faster capital outflow => hyperinflation, central government collapse

- made up economic numbers are exposed => foreign businesses pull out

- nationalization of foreign companies assets => foreign businesses pull out

- natural disasters + lack of food supply => citizen riot

Many of those things apply to democracies, too, unfortunately.

I’m genuinely curious why this comment is receiving downvotes. China becoming the world’s economic power by mid-century has been my set assumption for years. Has something changed with this expectation?

China population is 1398 Million, india is like 1366. China in half would be 700 million. Maybe it just don't add up? IME this site downvotes bad maths.

This. China may have more factories but its focus is on industry not spirituality. India will achieve Religious Victory by 2050.

Either that or Ghandi will nuke us all.