Consoles held progress back for decades, but even they can't stop it. So I see Bink becoming obsolete, I don't really see any major arguments for it. Just because it fit the bill before doesn't say anything about the future.
:D It's heading towards what you predict at the speed we're heading to be in the year of linux on desktop.
PS4/XB1 have been enormously more powerful than PS3/Xb360 and yet almost all games on those consoles that play a video do it using Bink even if both consoles have that AMD hardware you mention.
The current generation PS5, etc is way more powerful than PS4, and yet bink still seems to still dominate in the limited titles that we can see.
That's not a technical problem, sounds like incumbent problem to me. And this also negates your argument that Bink is needed because hardware can't support other codecs. Apparently it's powerful and it can? So why even bring that as a reason.