I am struck by how unrealistic many of these predictions are. My personal take, response.
* Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years.
* Stocks continue to rise as a function of inflation.
* Unemployment measured by workforce participation rate stays high or increases.
* Full self drivering cars are no closer.
* 50% chance of Bitcoin crash like in 2018, 50% chance of further price appreciation but I think $100,000 is absurd for a commodity that has close to zero intrinsic value...
* Major urban areas see falling rents as WFH continues.
* Silicon Valley loses some of its prominence as a function of WFH but I doubt a wholesale shift could happen in a year.
* 50 % chance of major social unrest in the USA as Trump diehards refuse to accept Biden.
* Tech advertising bubble begins to collapse. Tech bubble begins to collapse by year end. AI, self-driving vehicles discredited.
* Amazon reduces its own shipping service as a money loser increases use of UPS and USPS.
* Subscription web services (rather than ad funded) services begin to emerge.
* Reddit continues to decline in quality but no clear alternative emerges.
* Open source, distributed alternative to Facebook emerges, or linked-in subscription based competition.
* 25% chance major world leader dies
* 25% - 33% chance of major armed conflict, especially involving China.
* 20% chance of well attested "alien" contact.
* 20% chance of second novel pandemic in addition to Covid-19
* 20% chance of extra solar "asteroid" like Oumuamua
* >50% chance of Middle East Peace agreement between Arabs and Israel
* Large chance of abnormal oil price volatility.
* Brexit results in deep recession in UK, Boris Johnson is out.
> 50% chance of Bitcoin crash like in 2018, 50% chance of further price appreciation but I think $100,000 is absurd for a commodity that has close to zero intrinsic value
"$100 is absurd for a commodity that has close to zero intrinsic value"
"$1,000 is absurd..."
"$10,000 is absurd..."
At this point, the burden of proof is on sceptics to show why a commodity with zero "intrinsic" value trends upward despite those sceptics' predictions during the last ~10 years.
* Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years.
* Stocks continue to rise as a function of inflation.
* Unemployment measured by workforce participation rate stays high or increases.
* Full self drivering cars are no closer.
* 50% chance of Bitcoin crash like in 2018, 50% chance of further price appreciation but I think $100,000 is absurd for a commodity that has close to zero intrinsic value...
* Major urban areas see falling rents as WFH continues.
* Silicon Valley loses some of its prominence as a function of WFH but I doubt a wholesale shift could happen in a year.
* 50 % chance of major social unrest in the USA as Trump diehards refuse to accept Biden.
* Tech advertising bubble begins to collapse. Tech bubble begins to collapse by year end. AI, self-driving vehicles discredited.
* Amazon reduces its own shipping service as a money loser increases use of UPS and USPS.
* Subscription web services (rather than ad funded) services begin to emerge.
* Reddit continues to decline in quality but no clear alternative emerges.
* Open source, distributed alternative to Facebook emerges, or linked-in subscription based competition.
* 25% chance major world leader dies
* 25% - 33% chance of major armed conflict, especially involving China.
* 20% chance of well attested "alien" contact.
* 20% chance of second novel pandemic in addition to Covid-19
* 20% chance of extra solar "asteroid" like Oumuamua
* >50% chance of Middle East Peace agreement between Arabs and Israel
* Large chance of abnormal oil price volatility.
* Brexit results in deep recession in UK, Boris Johnson is out.