There is no change in monetary policy globally, and every country injected even more printed money into the system for Covid relief. 2021 should see new all time highs across all equities, particularly tech.
>Bitcoin
Crypto will have a meteoric run up until the Coinbase IPO in February, and then people will take their profits, but I expect it to rise with the rest of the economy by the end of the year again. Overall, everyone should be buying the major dips on crypto until 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics when China is expected to do a roll-out of their digital currency. I don’t recall if it’s exactly blockchain based, but it’s a sentiment booster for digital cashless economy and should boost the general crypto market.
I personally don’t over think this one, just buy/sell the trends on this stuff. If you bought 1btc at 3kish, you are sitting on 24k. Didn’t we all know Bitcoin wasn’t going to stay at 3k? This will be a never ending cycle and will be our generations Gold (what makes that go up or down now days is anybody’s guess, but the sentiment cycle is real on this stuff and it’s best to surf the trends).
>Inequality
Most likely due to economic growth. In the shuffle, the working class doesn’t get it’s fair share of the pie.
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I’ll add five:
1. Tesla really benefited from government subsidies for energy efficient vehicles. I expect the Biden administration, and the Democrats to push hard for “Green” subsidies across the board. Don’t be surprised if suddenly the new meme startup pitch shifts from blockchain over to “green”. Buy anything selling solar, electric vehicles, etc.
2. Restaurants come back different in a leaner way. Smaller locations, delivery first, little to no dine-in. Think more food trucks. Suddenly that mobile robotic pizza truck SoftBank invested in might not sound so insane. What was insane was an entire industry unable to survive because of people and real-estate costs. Not so wild to consider location-less/people-less alternative.
3. If Democrats win the run-off next week and take Congress, marijuana will get federally legalized.
4. Covid annihilated companies will merge or get acquired in 2021. They won’t be given a chance to rebound, but instead be snapped up at the first sign of an uptrend.
5. Online learning platforms will become enterprise grade platforms leveraged by school systems. I expect to see 10x more companies building a Blackboard alternative for k-12, as school districts will look negligent for not investing in one to facilitate remote learning.
As a high school level teacher, I don’t believe 5. will happen in a meaningful way. The fundamental funding models and incentives that brought us to this place of almost universal mediocrity in Ed Tech will continue. With the waning of covid over the summer, there will be a massive push to “get things back to normal” and no progress will be made.
> Bitcoin will rise big and then drop sharply once people realize how useless it is
or when the liquidity catches up to the prices on exchanges, like every bitcoin rally ever and people keep building on it regardless? it isn't controversial for commodities to have cyclical trading patterns.
Tech stocks could decline because they are way overvalued. The digitalization will stick with us. Online commerce will increase because traditional shops will accept that they have to adapt. Virtualization, remote work, and video conferencing will stay with us.
As a vaccine roles out, one would expect these online services to die back down again to roughly where they were, if a little elevated due to some good exposure.
> Fiat currencies will have major moves
I see a few large movers now trying to push micro-transactions which could be interesting. I know for example China are pushing Alipay very hard.
> Bitcoin will rise big and then drop sharply once people realize how useless it is
I think of Bitcoin essentially as a pyramid scheme, it has zero real world value. I think banks made a major mistake in trading in it.
I always thought it would be more interesting (if not more illegal) if it was used for solving computationally hard problems, where people post bounties for their completion and it can be proved the computation was done correctly. For example cracking a strong key pair or website certificate, or doing some computation for research like protein folding.
> Inequality will continue to grow. More controls will be put in place to keep disadvantaged in line. Surveillance, social controls, brainwashing
See the point about micro-transactions. Cash-in-hand agreements grease the palms of the working man, if they can make that digital then they can tax it.
> Real estate will have volatility
After the protests/riots in the US and the COVID situation in all major cities, I think many people are looking to move out to more rural areas. In New York I hear the markets are in a very bad way.
More no code platforms will emerge and grow
Fiat currencies will have major moves
Bitcoin will rise big and then drop sharply once people realize how useless it is
Inequality will continue to grow. More controls will be put in place to keep disadvantaged in line. Surveillance, social controls, brainwashing
Real estate will have volatility