I would assume that the FBI looked into the provenance of the laptop when they subpoenaed it over a year ago. Biden's campaign has also not repudiated the repair shop owner's story of how the laptop came into his possession, and the owner has a signed receipt. Hunter's lawyer allegedly also contacted the repair shop owner the day before the New York Post published the story. This set of facts indicates to me that the laptop was probably not obtained as part of a misinformation campaign.

Fundamentally, for me the null hypothesis is that this is typical election year opposition research. Those claiming that this is an elaborate Russian conspiracy have to present a pretty compelling case to convince me otherwise, given the repeated collapse of such narratives over the past few years.