That’s a 20 point lead for Biden, and the data above shows that Republicans are more likely to vote in person than Democrats. (1:2 margin among mail ins, and 1:1 among early in person voting).
Clinton won Miami Dade by 30 points (65-35) and still lost Florida by 1.2%.
"Leading" is incorrect, but modeling has assumed D's need a 70-30% advantage in mail voting. This is because of polling regarding COVID where R's are less worried about early IPEV and more likely voting on election day. The current numbers are nowhere near that, so I wouldn't be surprised if Florida is red.
Uh... whose modelling? We've never had a pandemic election, I think it's fair to say no one has any idea which demographics are more/less affected by an early voting drive. All we can say is that a whole lot of people are voting early.
>Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail
It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. We have the actual hard number of ballots requested and returned, broken down by party registration. More Democrats are voting via mail. They're also voting in-person in equal numbers to Republicans, at least so far.
Define "LEADING" please, because the actual numbers for voting in Miami-Dade county [1] as of today are:
Mail Voting
Rep 83,605
Dem 158,788
NPA 82,533 (NPA = No Party Affiliation)
In-Person Early Voting
Rep 61,273
Dem 61,548
NPA 35,296
Totals
Rep 144,878
Dem 220,336
In what way does that constitute Republicans "LEADING"?
[1] https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVoti...