Draw three independent random variables a,b,c~U[0,1].
In the first experiment, let the baby pick between a and b: of course E[a|chosen]>1/2; E[b|unchosen]<1/2. Since a,b,c are independent, E[c]=1/2.
Why are they (journalist/researcher (?)) surprised that in the 2nd round the baby chooses c over b?
[Of course, if you force the baby to pick either b or a in the first round, she will be equally likely to pick c or not in the second round]
Why are they (journalist/researcher (?)) surprised that in the 2nd round the baby chooses c over b? [Of course, if you force the baby to pick either b or a in the first round, she will be equally likely to pick c or not in the second round]